NFL Draft Prospect Comparisons
It’s that time of the year again peeps! Draft season is well under way and we’re just over a month away from the NFL draft where we’ll finally be able to attach landing spots to these exciting incoming rookies. Before releasing my positional rankings for the incoming rookie class, I wanted to give some golf claps to those who have maximized their draft capital in rookie drafts over the past few seasons. Today I’ll be covering the biggest steals in rookie drafts from the past three seasons, and I’ll also give you the 2023 rookie who most fits the similar billing of these guys that slid in previous years. My rookie comp parallels for short. Let’s get right into it…
2020 NFL Draft Prospect Comparisons
Justin Herbert – I’ll be the first one to tell you I wasn’t sold on Herbert coming out. I had Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts ahead of him on my board and took Clyde Edwards-Helaire over Herbert in a Superflex rookie draft that year. Not good. I know I wasn’t the only out there who felt this way though. Herbert came in with a big arm, and ideal size and athleticism for the position. His biggest question marks surrounded his decision making and processing ability. Sound familiar to someone in the 2023 class? All Herbert has done since entering the league and taking over for Tyrod Taylor was wow us with his arm and ability to extend the play. With a 66.9% completion percentage and 94:35 TD:INT ratio, with eight more touchdowns on the ground, it’s safe to say he has outplayed his rookie draft slot.
2023 Draft Comp…
Will Levis – Big arm? Check. Ideal size and athleticism? Check. Questions about decision making and processing ability? Check. Everything being said about Levis sounds eerily familiar in the pre-draft process to that of Herbert. He’s my QB4 in this class, like Herbert was for me in 2020 as well. Levis’ 2021 tape with Wan’Dale Robinson looked much better than his 2022 tape with two freshman wide receivers leading the way (albeit talented freshman). That should be expected but what I didn’t enjoy seeing was his footwork regress from 2021 to 2022.
Lackluster offensive line play coupled with young wide receivers can take partial blame for the struggles but you’d still like to see more consistency in his snap-to-snap mechanics. Straight from the horse’s mouth that has been his main focus this offseason… tightening those mechanics. I’m not saying he’s the next Justin Herbert. Just don’t let him slide past 1.06 in your Superflex rookie drafts. That should be his absolute floor. He checks too many of the physical trait boxes to pass on.
Tee Higgins – Higgins was an absolute monster at Clemson. He had 118 catches and 25 touchdowns in his final two years in college alone. He set the ACC championship game record for receiving yards with 182 in 2019. He was amazing. After not testing at the combine, he ran a 4.59 40 at his pro day with a 31” vertical. Suffice it to say most in the dynasty community had him sliding on their boards. He actually came out as the WR7 for most people in that class post NFL draft (He was my WR5 for what it’s worth). Sounds crazy doesn’t it? Sad but true. Even after Burrow hand-picked Higgins that year people still allowed Higgins to slide to the top half of the second round in most Superflex rookie drafts. After posting 215 catches and 19 touchdowns in his first three seasons, he’s not only outplayed that draft position but from the looks of it, the best is yet to come.
2023 Draft Comp…
Jordan Addison – While the size is much different between these two, the consistent college production combined with what was considered to be disappointing testing numbers during the pre-draft process sees plenty of parallel narratives. Addison came in at 5’11” 173lbs at the combine. Typically, 180lbs is the cutoff for WR1 type production in fantasy so that already hurts his case. Combine that with a 4.49 40 and 34” vertical, and explosion wouldn’t be considered his strong suite.
But his college production speaks for itself. After coming out as a true freshman and racking up 60 catches for over 600 yards and 4 TD’s, he followed that up by reeling in 159 more receptions for over 2300 yards and 25 touchdowns over the next two years, in two different offensive schemes. When you turn on the tape you see a guy who understands his strengths and knows how to use leverage in his breaks to create separation. His play strength outweighs his actual size and he shows that with his willingness to go up and get the ball over the middle of the field. He has such a way of avoiding the big hit. His field awareness is top notch, probably a nod to his quarterback days in high school.
Jordan Addison has to be a first round pick in 2023 Superflex rookie drafts. He’s my WR4 and you shouldn’t overthink it when it comes to picking him anywhere in the back third of the first round of your draft.
2021 NFL Draft Prospect Comparisons
Amon-Ra St. Brown – The “Sun God” wasn’t even in most people’s Top 10 for their rookie Wide Receiver rankings (he was my WR12). Boy was that a misfire. Amon-Ra racked up 178 catches for over 2200 yards and 16 touchdowns in his three years at USC. From his true freshman season on campus, he was a weapon in that offense. After running a 4.61 40 at his pro day he slid on anyone’s board who may have had him in their Top 10. The Lions picked him up in the 4th round and just like at USC, he’s been a weapon for Detroit since he arrived. With 196 catches for 2073 yards and 11 touchdowns in his first two professional seasons, he’s clearly been a steal for the Lions as well as savvy fantasy owners who took the shot on him in the middle of the second round that year in Superflex rookie drafts.
2023 Draft Comp…
Xavier Hutchinson – Besides my guy Spencer, who I play in multiple dynasty leagues with, everyone seems to be sleeping on Xavier Hutchinson as a prospect. I haven’t seen him mentioned as a Top 10 Wide Receivers on many of the bigger dynasty fantasy networks. After little recruitment out of high school Hutchinson went to Blinn Junior College for his freshman season. He then transferred to Iowa State where he immediately took over with Brock Purdy as his quarterback. With 254 catches for over 2900 yards and 15 touchdowns over the last three seasons at Iowa State, Hutchinson has been a terror for Big 12 defenses. His statistical production has improved all three years, and although he does make a lot of his catches close to the line of scrimmage (similar to Amon-Ra in college), he doesn’t get enough credit for his nuance as a route runner.
After an underwhelming combine where he ran a 4.53 40, he continues to fly under the radar in fantasy circles as he does in NFL circles based on current NFL mock drafts. Probably an early day 3 pick, like St. Brown, Hutchinson has all the tools to go in somewhere and make an immediate impact. If that somewhere happens to be San Francisco where he reunites with his former college quarterback, I will have a ton of Hutchinson shares this year.
Rhamondre Stevenson – Stevenson was a 4th round pick in the NFL draft as well as in most rookie drafts. To say he’s outproduced that draft slot is an understatement and then some. Stevenson only had 165 carries in his two years at Oklahoma, but with an average yards per carry (YPC) of 7.2 there was clearly some talent there. Landing in New England with the Patriots didn’t move the needle and he was outside the Top 8 or so running backs on most people’s boards (He was RB13 for me). Yikes. After a 4.64 40 at his pro day, his fate was sealed for me. Boy was I wrong there. He’s carried that efficiency right over from college to the pros. With a 4.8 average YPC and 10 touchdowns in a part-time role with the Patriots, Stevenson has clearly shown he can be a very good running back in the NFL.
2023 Draft Comp…
DeWayne McBride – My RB11 as of this writing, I’m probably lower on McBride than my gut tells me. Arguably the best pure runner of the football outside of Bijan in this class, McBride has done nothing but produce at UAB. With over 3500 rushing yards and 36 touchdowns on the ground over his three seasons for the Blazers, he’s been virtually unstoppable. He also averaged 7.3 yards per tote over his career, right on par with Rhamondre Stevenson, albeit on over 300 more carries.
McBride runs angry, leading the nation in yards after contact at 4.72 per tote and always seems to be falling forward. A nagging hamstring injury has held McBride out of testing at both the NFL combine as well as UAB’s pro day. He’s hoping to test for teams on his own sometime in April. With no testing numbers, and a lack of proven receiving chops, McBride is probably going to be a Day 3 pick in the NFL draft but if he gets an opportunity somewhere he could be a steal for an NFL team as well as your fantasy team in the third or fourth round of rookie drafts.
2022 NFL Draft Prospect Comparisons
Isiah Pacheco – “Pop” became a household name this season after going for 960 total yards and 5 touchdowns in the regular season for the Super Bowl champion Chiefs. His 830 yards rushing were more than he had in any season at Rutgers. Pacheco wasn’t in the best situation in college, but you never saw him complain or transfer, he kept working and stayed committed. He first started getting national attention after running a 4.37 40 at 5’10” 216lbs at the combine. Even after being drafted by Kansas City in the 7th round of the 2022 NFL draft, he wasn’t really considered to be much more than an early third round rookie pick in Superflex leagues. If we were re-drafting the 2022 draft, I doubt Pacheco would make it out of the first 15 picks. I was happily landing “Pop” anywhere I could last year and will be doing the same with this guy I’m about to mention.
2023 NFL Draft Comp…
Israel Abanikanda – “Izzy” is a sure-fire Top 5 running back in this class. At 5’11” 216lbs, he came in at the almost identical size as Pacheco. After averaging 5.3 YPC in 2021 splitting time in the backfield Izzy took the lions share of touches for Pittsburgh in 2022 and absolutely dominated to the tune of 1577 yards from scrimmage and 21 total touchdowns. He averaged 6.0 YPC as well and if you haven’t watched the Pitt vs Virginia Tech game from 2022, I highly recommend it. He flashed his game breaking speed, one cut and go no B.S. running style, and shook off multiple would-be tacklers on his way to a career day. He followed that up with nothing but 100+ yard performances to cap off his season.
After such a dominant season you would think Abanikanda would be getting more buzz, but he wasn’t being mentioned much until his Pro Day came and went and saw him run in the mid 4.3’s in the 40 with a 41” vertical. That vertical is 8” higher than Pacheco’s was at the 2022 combine so Izzy is a little more explosive to say the least. This is a very deep RB class this year but don’t let Abanikanda slip through the cracks he should be a lock to go top 15-18 in your rookie drafts if he gets the capital and/or lands in the right situation similar to where we saw Pacheco land last year. Starting at 1.10 this year, I’d be considering “Izzy”.
Jahan Dotson – Although he was a 1st round pick in the NFL draft last season, Dotson fell to the 2nd round, and sometimes late 2nd of most SF rookie drafts. Most people chalked it up to the landing spot being Washington but its clear people weren’t exactly sold on his ability to be more than a slot guy at the next level. Dotson played 4 years at Penn St where his numbers improved each year, capping it off with 91 catches for 1182 yards and 12 touchdowns as a senior.
At the combine Dotson measured in at 5’11” 178lbs. As mentioned with Addison earlier, the cutoff for WR1/2 production is 180lbs so maybe that made people shy away. But a 4.43 40 and 36” vertical should’ve quelled any athleticism questions. He was also one of the most sure handed prospects to come out in the last few classes. Dotson finished with 35 catches for 523 yards and seven touchdowns in 12 games his rookie season with the Commanders and the arrow is pointing up for the former Nittany Lion heading into year 2. He showed a keen ability to get open in the red zone and should be a weapon for Sam Howell or whoever lines up under center this season.
2023 NFL Draft Comp…
Zay Flowers – Flowers is projected to be a late first round pick this year, and a lot of people have him landing in the range of Baltimore and the New York Giants. Both spots aren’t exactly beloved in the fantasy community whether it be because of the style of the offense or the level of quarterback play. Also labeled as more a slot first type guy, Flowers is fully of capable of lining up outside and winning with consistency like Dotson. He measured 5’9” 182lbs so the BMI is great, and with a 4.42 40 and 35.5” vertical he proved the explosiveness we see on tape is legit. While he struggled in press coverage, NFL teams rarely run press if at all in today’s game.
Zay is elite at route manipulation and creates yards of separation at the top of his routes with fantastic footwork in and out of his breaks. He has very strong hands, another parallel to Dotson, and will go up and attack the ball at the high point similar to Jahan as well. It doesn’t matter where Flowers winds up going in the NFL draft, if he gets the first round capital he’s projected to get there is zero reason he should slide past the Top 15 picks in any rookie drafts.
| Year | Position | NFL Player | Prospect Comp |
| 2020 | QB | Justin Herbert | Will Levis |
| 2020 | WR | Tee Higgins | Jordan Addison |
| 2021 | WR | Amon-Ra St. Brown | Xavier Hutchinson |
| 2021 | RB | Rhamondre Stevenson | DeWayne McBride |
| 2022 | RB | Isiah Pacheco | Israel Abanikanda |
| 2022 | WR | Jahan Dotson | Zay Flowers |
Well, that does it for the rookie comp parallels between former drafts players who slid and guys we don’t want to let slide this year. The draft is less than 4 weeks away and I can’t wait to put some landing spots next to these players and get these rookie drafts going! I want to give a huge thanks to @MasterIDP for bringing me on here at RPO and I’m excited to keep bringing you guys more dynasty football content in the near future.