As the NFL season approaches, certain EDGE players are primed for a substantial surge in sack totals. With expanded playing time and better supporting casts, these defenders will have amplified opportunities to wreak havoc on opposing quarterbacks. Strategic adjustments in defensive schemes and meticulous offseason refinement of their pass-rushing techniques position them for potential success.
Advanced metrics like pass-rush win rate and highly favorable matchups against weaker offensive lines suggest they are on the brink of a breakout year. Whether fueled by the urgency of a contract year, a triumphant return from injury, or an expected increase in pass-rush scenarios, these players are poised for a standout season, making them essential names to watch.
EDGE Defenders Primed for Sack Surges
Josh Sweat, Philadelphia Eagles
Currently, Josh Sweat is the top edge player for the Eagles in a group that includes Bryce Huff, Brandon Graham, and former first-round draft selection Nolan Smith Jr. Sweat is coming off his most pressures in a single season (68 in 2023). He has a killer duo of defensive tackles who penetrate the interior line and assist with harassing opposing quarterbacks named Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis. Sweat finished 2023 with a 21.5% pass-rush win rate. Sweat, in recent years, has finished each season with around 40 combined tackles, but his sacks last season were the worst he had since 2020.
If Sweat can apply the same amount of pressure to the quarterback this season as in 2023, he may be able to recreate the year he had in 2022, when he finished with eleven sacks, or perhaps he could finish with even more.
JOSH SWEAT SACK. #Noles pic.twitter.com/BkESG90ok7
— Logan B. Robinson (@LogansTwitty) November 6, 2023
Kayvon Thibodeaux, New York Giants
Thibodeaux saw a 6.5 sack increase from his rookie year in 2022 to his sophomore season last year. Interestingly, his pressures only increased by three in 2023 (83 in two NFL seasons). The Giants added former Panthers star Brian Burns to their defensive line. The added force that Burns will be on the opposite side of the line should benefit both parties. The Giants have Dexter Lawrence at nose tackle to help penetrate the middle of the offensive line.
The Giants offense is nothing special aside from Malik Nabers. They don’t have much firepower on offense, and the line could be better, so I don’t see them extending many drives, meaning the Giants will have Thibodeaux on the field more to get points for your fantasy team. In 2023, Thibodeaux finished with a measly 6.4% pass rush win rate, which took a step backward from his 9.5% finish in 2022. I expect the win rate and the opportunities to increase this season.
Arden Key, Tennessee Titans
Key has been on five NFL teams in six seasons as he heads into his seventh season and second season in Tennessee. 2021 was Key’s best season as far as sacks go. In 2021, Key was in San Francisco, finishing with six and a half sacks and a pressure rate of 12.9%. Fast forward to 2023, and Key finished with six sacks in total with a pass rush rate of 12.6%.
In 2023, Key finished the season with 700+ snaps, the most snaps he’s had in a single season and the most opportunity he has seen since his rookie season back in 2018. The stability of staying on a team stacked with the workload he will receive this season should equate to at least a few more sacks. The offense is a wildcard and could get into shootouts with the teams they play. If this happens, the Titans could see more pass-rush scenarios on defense.
Key recently had a six-game suspension overturned for violating the PED policy, so he should be ready to contribute early in the season.
Arden Key is a player you can get off of your waiver wire unless your leagues are insanely deep, but he should be a dark horse name to watch when it comes to players who will see their sacks increase.
Per @GrindSimmons94 #Titans EDGE Arden Key has won his appeal and will NOT face a 6-game suspension from the NFL.
HUGE news in Tennessee. pic.twitter.com/2KzWIqVh8P
— Sam Phalen (@Sam_Phalen) August 17, 2024
Other names to watch:
Z’Darius Smith, Carolina Panthers
Alex Highsmith, Pittsburgh Steelers
Greg Rousseau, Buffalo Bills
DeMarcus Lawrence, Washington Commanders
Victor Dimukeje, Arizona Cardinals
Jonathan Cooper, Denver Broncos
Odafe Oweh, Baltimore Ravens
Jermaine Johnson, New York Jets
Keion White, New England Patriots
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