Potential IDP Busts to look out for in 2024
Welcome to the anti-hype train; we discuss potential IDP Busts for the 2024 season today. Every year, there are players who we, as fantasy managers, assume will break or perform well during the season. The reasons could be a change of scenery, new additions to the team, or even a scheme change, but whatever the reason, predictions don’t always pan out the way we’d wish they would. With every set of players exceeding their seasonal expectations come some players who trend in the opposite direction and perform underwhelmingly. Now, these players will not be entirely irrelevant; rather, they won’t perform as exceptionally as one may think.
I’ll review each player by position group, with two veterans and one rookie for three players per major position group (Defensive lineman, linebacker, and defensive back). Let us get into the players and reasoning.
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Defensive Lineman
Bryce Huff, DL/LB, New York Jets
This offseason, Bryce Huff signed with the Philadelphia Eagles for three years. Huff spent his first four years in the NFL with the Jets, where he played in only one entire season. Until last season, Huff had not finished a year with more than three sacks: in 2023, he finished with ten. It wasn’t only his sacks that increased, Huff’s tackles also slightly increased. Huff has not seen the field for over 500 snaps in a single season, and though he did have a defensive glow-up on the stat sheet, he still was just “ok” for fantasy purposes. This is a result of Huff primarily being utilized on passing downs.
When defensive coordinator Vic Fangio was asked about Bryce Huff‘s potential as a three-down edge, he responded, “Does he look like he can do it today? No.” This was a quote from the end of July, but it’s still not very convincing that Huff will be relied on to do much more than provide a solid pass rush. Huff still could provide decent numbers in the tackle-for-loss and the sack columns. Even so, the Eagles still have their veteran Josh Sweat, who led the team in pressures(68) last season, a former first-round draft selection in Nolan Smith Jr. and Brandon Graham, who logged just under 400 snaps last season also on the roster.
If you plan to take Huff after the first tier of players, you are drafting him at his highest ceiling, and I’d prefer to wait and draft a player like his counterpart, Josh Sweat, at his reduced ADP.
Joey Bosa, DL/LB, Los Angeles Chargers
Joey Bosa has been a great IDP starter in the past, but I’m afraid those days seem to be over. He has only 485 defensive snaps in the past two seasons because of injuries (A groin tear in 2022 and a foot sprain in 2023) and a handful of missed games in his career due to concussions. Injuries are not something you can predict, so aside from that concern, Bosa has never finished with 13+ sacks and has not finished with 11+ sacks in a single season since 2019.
Drafting Bosa in the third wave of edge rushers is drafting him at his assumed best, and for me, it’s just too risky of a bet. Other Chargers edge rushers include former All-Pro Kahlil Mack, former Titan Bud Dupree, and Tuli Tuipulotu, who had a solid rookie season last year in Bosa’s absence and finished with 51 pressures.
Dallas Turner, DL/LB, Minnesota Vikings
In the offseason, the Minnesota Vikings signed Andrew Van Ginkel to a two-year deal and Jonathan Greenard to a four-year deal while also drafting Dallas Turner out of The University of Alabama. It’s prominent that the Vikings brass wanted to shake things up and prepare for the future at the edge position.
Turner tested well at the NFL Combine and is known for getting after quarterbacks with his athleticism and explosive power off the line of scrimmage. Given Turner’s draft capital, you would think the Vikings would get him on the field immediately, which they could. However, to assume that he will hit the ground running and give you immediate DL1 production is overzealous, at least for this season.
Drafting Turner after the initial wave of pass-rushers in Redraft would be hoping/assuming that he gets over ten sacks this season and a good amount of tackles, which he could eventually work to in his career. Still, given that he may be sharing snaps and learning from the newly signed veterans this season, I think it would be wise to let someone else draft Dallas Turner unless he is still around at the end of your drafts.
Others to Watch
Brian Burns, DL, New York Giants
Byron Murphy II, DL, Seattle Seahawks
Justin Madubuike, DL, Baltimore Ravens
Linebackers
Patrick Queen, LB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Patrick Queen‘s ADP has skyrocketed since he signed a three-year deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers in the offseason, as he is assumed to take over the immediate LB1 role. The former Raven spent his entire rookie contract in Baltimore and was the LB2 playing aside 2022 all-pro linebacker Roquan Smith. Queen started his career with a bang, finishing third in Defensive Rookie of the Year voting in 2020. Ever since he stepped foot on the Baltimore field, he seemed efficient for fantasy football. Queen was utilized to pressure the quarterback and led their linebackers in pressures since his arrival into the league in 2020.
The Steelers, unfortunately for IDP managers, are not known for utilizing their linebackers to pressure the quarterback; they leave that to the edge players most of the time. If Patrick Queen were to have his pressures lower per season, perhaps so would his sacks and tackles for loss. Speaking of tackling, Queen is not the best linebacker at bringing down the ball carrier, with 18+ missed tackles in each of his four seasons so that managers may lose points due to inefficient tackling. Also, Queen isn’t the best linebacker in pass coverage, and his targets in pass coverage have increased every season (67 targets, 77.6% completion percentage in 2023)
Other linebackers on the Steelers currently include veterans Elandon Roberts, who led the team in tackles in 2023, and Cole Holcomb, who will be on the physically unable-to-perform list to start the season due to a knee injury sustained in week nine of last season. The Steelers also drafted rookie Payton Wilson in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft, who is highly athletic but dropped in the draft due to a past plagued with injuries.
The IDP bust label applies more to the drafting Queen among the first two tiers of the linebackers crowd, as he may have a few spike weeks, but I don’t expect an all-pro season from Queen. I believe Patrick Queen will fall short of superstar status this season, but I could see him being a solid LB2/LB3.
Nakobe Dean, LB, Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles have been thin at linebacker for a few seasons. This offseason, Philadelphia added former Buccaneers first-round draft selection Devin White and Zack Baun from New Orleans. They also signed Oren Burks from San Francisco and drafted Jeremiah Trotter Jr. in the fifth round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Dean started 2023 with a right foot injury that sidelined him for a few games, and ultimately was placed on IR for a left foot sprain on November 16th of 2023. Injuries were a concern for Dean as he saw his draft stock take a hit, sliding to the third round when he came out of college two years ago.
The current potential starters for the Eagles are Devin White and Zack Baun, with Dean playing third fiddle and others hungry for a job behind him. The bust label isn’t a matter of talent, as I don’t think we have seen enough of Dean healthy to fully say if he is capable of holding down an NFL starting spot due to talent alone, as he can’t seem to stay on the field with 220 snaps in two years. I’m fading Dean based solely on his injury concerns and lack of snaps this season.
Edgerrin Cooper, LB, Green Bay Packers
The Packers added Edgerrin Cooper in the second round of the 2024 NFL Draft to beef up their linebacker corps for the future. Cooper played 45 games in his four seasons at Texas A&M and was named to the All-SEC team by the coaches in the division. Cooper showed his ability to be utilized in pass-rush at the collegiate level, finishing 2023 with 27 pressures and ten sacks.
My concerns with Cooper aren’t because he can’t play but because of the other linebackers around him. Quay Walker is the team’s LB1 and the presumed three-down linebacker who holds the “green dot.” The Packers drafted Ty’Ron Hopper from Missouri in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft, another linebacker known for his role in pressuring the quarterback in college and should be in the mix for the future LB2 role.
The main block in the road for Cooper, as he tries for consistent playing time, would be the current assumed LB2 on the roster, Isaiah McDuffie. McDuffie was a sixth-round draft selection in 2021. He is generally known for his pass rush but is a decent linebacker. He’s not amazing at any one thing in particular, but he isn’t the worst option for an LB2. McDuffie also has filled in for Quay Walker and De’Vondre Campbell in the past when they missed games. In an article from July, coach Matt LeFleur spoke highly of McDuffie, stating, “I view him as a starter, whether he’s starting or not.”
The Packers have a handful of players who could be rotated as the LB2, and we may see all three players get a shot at the position at some point this year. I am staying away from Edgerrin Cooper this season, but I look forward to his development. He could lock down the LB2 job by the end of the season.
Others to Watch
Matt Milano, LB, Buffalo Bills (Update: Bicep Injury)
DeMarvion Overshown, LB, Dallas Cowboys
Elandon Roberts, LB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Defensive Backs
Xavier McKinney, SAF, Green Bay Packers
Xavier McKinney had a solid year in New York last season, so much so that he signed a four-year $60 million deal (17 million a season) with the Packers this offseason. McKinney was known last season in the IDP world for putting together some lovely weeks statistically in the tackle column while also being a ballhawk in the secondary. In McKinney’s four seasons in the league, he was utilized less as a pass rusher, but he still split time between being a box and deep safety.
The Packers also drafted rookie Javon Bullard in the second round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Bullard is like McKinney in that both players can find success in the box or as the deep safety, but Bullard does seem more efficient in pass coverage than wrapping up a ball carrier in the box. The Packers also drafted Evan Williams in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL draft, but I expect him to play the depth/rotational role in the secondary as he adjusts to the playbook and NFL game speed.
Xavier McKinney will be relied on less to bang in the box than he did in New York, but he should still find success as a DB2/3. If you are drafting McKinney after the first few defensive backs (Hamilton, James, and Winfield) as your DB1, then you have a player who splits roles with another player in a defense with limited upside. Yes, you could hit on tackles in a few weeks during the season, but you probably won’t feel like you got bang for your buck if you draft McKinney early in IDP Redraft formats.
Cooper DeJean, CB/SAF, Philadelphia Eagles
Cooper DeJean was projected as a late first-round draft pick but fell to the Eagles in the second round of the 2024 NFL Draft. DeJean is best known for his multifaceted presence in the secondary. He can align and be effective almost anywhere in the secondary, but is there room for the rookie to start?
Philly’s safety positions are filled by veterans Reed Blankenship and C.J. Gardner-Johnson, who returns to the Eagles after his one-year stint with Detroit. Fellow rookie Quinyon Mitchell was another defensive back the Eagles drafted in the first round before they drafted DeJean; Mitchell is presumed to start slot corner, and DeJean finds himself as the odd man out at those three positions, at least for now.
DeJean can also play outside corner and was a return specialist in college. Isaiah Rodgers, Avonte Maddox, and Kelee Ringo could all potentially start opposite Darius Slay at outside corner. The Eagles have options on whom to start at every defensive back position, which isn’t bad for that organization.
The worst part is that DeJean is currently dealing with a hamstring issue that has kept him off the field for the Eagles’ first two preseason games, so he’s not getting reps and will still need time when healthy to adjust to the NFL. This year will not be a redshirt year entirely, but with the Eagles’ options at defensive back, I don’t anticipate they rush DeJean onto the field. For that reason, I am fading DeJean in redraft formats.
Others to Watch
Jessie Bates III, SAF, Atlanta Falcons
Jalen Thompson, SAF, Arizona Cardinals
Daxton Hill, SAF/CB, Cincinnati Bengals
Minkah Fitzpatrick, SAF, Pittsburgh Steelers