Wide Receiver Dynasty Sleepers to Grab Before NFL Free Agency Begins
Building a solid receiver core is one of the most important things needed to build long term success for your dynasty team. Since receivers often play at a high level for up to 10 years , getting in on guys while they’re young gives you more time to build the rest of your team around that core! Locking down some of the big-name players is certain to be difficult, so it’s necessary to look for sleepers in the offseason. The receivers listed below all had decent years (or at least showed great upside), but between cuts, contracts expiring, free agency, and new coaches, they may be in for greatly expanded roles in the 2023 season. Here is a list of 5 receivers to target in your dynasty leagues before their true potential is exposed this offseason!
1.) K.J. Osborn – Minnesota Vikings
Osborn is entering his 4th season in the NFL and his 3rd year of fantasy relevance, spending the last two years as the #3 receiver behind Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. Even playing with one of the better receiver duos in the game, Osborn was able to show flashes of brilliance, scoring 14+ points (WR2 value in a ppr) in 12/34 games; A good comparison to Thielen who scored 14+ in 14/34 games in the past two seasons. The Vikings are currently $21M over the CAP and could save $6.5M by cutting soon to be 33-year-old Adam Thielen before June 1st. This maneuver has the potential to thrust Osborn into a more solid WR2 role, even though he was earning that value a third of the time anyway.
Even if the Vikings don’t cut Thielen and instead restructure his contract, his usage has decreased this past season and could continue to decrease as he gets older. If Adam Thielen is cut, the team will likely want to bring in another receiver to fill out the room, but with the cap as tight as it is, it’s unlikely to be a player strong enough to keep Osborn off the field. I also don’t see the Vikings drafting a receiver high, as they have a lot of gaps to fill at other positions that are more critical, specifically on defense. The door appears to be wide open for K.J. Osborn to assume a greater role next season and is likely a cheap acquisition in your fantasy leagues!
2.) Nico Collins – Houston Texans
At this stage in the offseason, Nico Collins is one of my favorite prospects for major improvement. Nico stands to gain from a severely depleted wide receiver room, likely the first or second best quarterback in this year’s draft, a new head coach, and a new, revitalized offensive scheme under Bobby Slowik. All four of these should excite you if you are already a Collins owner, but if you’re not, let me get you on board.
I believe, like many others, that the clearest single statistic to determine a receiver’s value is by the number of times he is targeted per game. The idea being that the more opportunities a player is given to score points, the more likely they are to score those points and thus should be considered more valuable. While it is not always a perfect indication, high target receivers should be the guys you pursue rather than the more boom or bust players who are big play dependent. You can see a crude visualization of this phenomenon in the chart below:
During the 2022 season, Collins averaged 6.6 targets per game, which already would put him across the threshold of valuable receivers. Even better than that, during his final four games of the season before his injury, he averaged a whopping nine targets per game and 12.15 points per game (PPR). These stats stretched across the season would place him at the red star in the chart above. Much like chart neighbor Garrett Wilson, the low points per game can be attributed to shoddy quarterback play for most if not all of the season.
With a new QB incoming, you can anticipate that number to go up. On top of all of that, it is likely that Nico will be one of two relevant receivers to remain with the team in 2023. With Chris Moore and Phillip Dorsett becoming unrestricted free agents and Brandin Cooks not wanting to be part of the rebuilding process (but still under contract), Nico Collins and John Metchie may be the last men standing. The Texans will certainly have to bring in new receivers either through the draft or in free agency, but at 6’4 215, Nico Collins is a physical standout that can fill a role that not many receivers can. Go get him while you still can!
3.) Jahan Dotson – Washington Commanders
Jahan Dotson very quietly had himself an excellent rookie season in a situation that I like to describe as “getting Wentz’d.” He caught passes from three different quarterbacks this season, each time because the previous quarterback had been benched for poor play. Nevertheless, in only 12 games he was able to catch seven touchdown passes which helped him outscore both George Pickens and Drake London in weekly points (PPR). In this upcoming season, he’s more likely to have a consistent quarterback (it would be hard not to) and he may be able to move up the depth chart if the Commanders cut or trade Curtis Samuel. The Commanders are in an ok place with their cap room (it helps to be able to save $26M by jettisoning Carson Wentz), so they likely don’t need to move on from Samuel, but if they’re looking to pay up for a shiny new quarterback like Derek Carr or Jimmy Garoppolo, they’re going to need as much cap space as they can get.
Even if Samuel stays with the team, the Commanders showed in several games last year that they can and will feature all three of their receivers and distribute the ball effectively. During the season, Terry McLaurin scored 10+ points in 12 out of 17 games, Curtis Samuel in 9 out of 17 games, and Jahan Dotson in 7 out of 12 games with each achieving 14+ points in just over half of those games respectively (7, 5, and 5). Commanders’ receivers are already good value, but with a potential change in the room and likely a new quarterback, Jahan Dotson could break out as a top 5 WR2 next year.
4.) Jakobi Meyers – Unrestricted Free Agent
Meyers has spent his first four years in New England and shifted from having Tom Brady at QB his rookie year to having Mac Jones and the high-powered offense of Matt Patricia (/s). In all seriousness, Meyers is a great receiver that has gotten better each season, in spite of a lack-luster passing scheme. The table below shows his number of games at each value threshold year over year.
| Receiver Value Thresholds | WR1 (16.5+ points per game) | WR2 (14+ points per game) | WR3 (10+ points per game) |
| 2022 season | 5 games | 5 games | 9 games |
| 2021 season | 3 games | 5 games | 9 games |
| 2020 season | 2 games | 5 games | 8 games |
You can see that Meyers is a WR3 or better in half of his games and a WR2 or better in about a third of his games. In 2022, all of his games above 14 points were also above 16.5 points making him a WR1 in just under a third of his games this past season. Given what you’ve just read about him, it would make sense for the Patriots to try to retain him for years to come. However, if Meyer wants to test out the very receiver-dry free agency market this year and the Patriots don’t franchise tag him, he could make his way to a number of places that could be a massive situational upgrade for him.
The three tastiest landing spots in my opinion are the Kansas City Chiefs, New York Giants, and Green Bay Packers. All three of those teams lack true #1 receivers so Meyers could step in immediately and be the leader in the room. If he does end up in one of those three spots, look for him to potentially become a top 15 receiver. Even if Meyers does stay in New England, whether by contract or franchise tag, the recent addition of Offensive Coordinator Bill O’Brien is the turning of a new leaf from the past two seasons of terrible offensive play and play calling. That change alone will be a boon for Meyers, though it likely won’t be as impactful as a team change.
5.) Jerry Jeudy – Denver Broncos
The expectation for Jerry Jeudy has always been for him to be at the same level as Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, and Tee Higgins. Unfortunately, through his first three seasons he’s only barely been able to sniff that level of value. Perhaps 2023 is going to be his year to shine. His first two years, he suffered from bad quarterback play and mediocre coaching; 2022 he suffered from mediocre quarterback play and bad coaching. The addition of Sean Payton cannot be overstated in terms of value to the offense; even a bad Russell Wilson was enough to give Jeudy a significant boost in 2022.
In his first two years, Jeudy was able to reach WR3 (10+) value a total of 12 times and WR2 (14+) value 2 times (also happened to be WR1 [16.5+] value both times). This past season alone, he was a WR3 10 times, WR2 8 times, and WR1 6 times; an unbelievable upgrade! Now if you add on top of that the positive culture and competent play calling that Payton will be bringing in, you start to see why Jeudy’s outlook is so fantastic. Even though his receiver room shouldn’t change significantly, he is still making this list just because his overall situation is projected to change so drastically that many fantasy players may not see it coming. If you have the ability to get your hands on Jeudy, this is the time to make your move!
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