State of the Game: Running Backs
The 2023 offseason brought with it an endless stream of drama surrounding running backs or running back rooms. The landing spots for free agents and rookies left a lot to be desired. A common situation now is a crowded room with no clear leader. Unfortunately, the few backs that are clear leaders in their rooms have other problems to deal with. Saquon Barkley, Austin Ekeler, and Josh Jacobs are looking for long term contracts. Jonathan Taylor, Dameon Pierce, and Myles Sanders are dealing with rookie Quarterbacks, new head coaches, and new offensive systems. Plus, many older backs like Leonard Fournette, Kareem Hunt, and Ezekiel Elliott are struggling to find teams to sign with.
The apparent lack of attention given to securing a bell cow running back shows a distinct shift in the culture of the league. Of course, the players themselves are vocally resisting the change as it has led to lower salaries and less guaranteed money in contracts for the past few years. Naturally, as the NFL changes its positional priorities, the fantasy world will follow. That is not to say that running backs are losing fantasy value overall, just that the value is changing.
The chart below shows the points per game stat for the Top 25 running backs over the last 10 years. It’s a crowded chart, but the important parts are the 2022 line shown in bold red and 2021 in bold white.
The high-end scorers the past two years have been below the average of the past ten years, which is consistent with the lower focus on high touch percentage for backs. However, looking at the right end of the chart, the points per game of the 15th-25th back fall in the middle or upper part of the ten-year band. Extending the chart out to the top 50 backs keeps the ’21 and ’22 lines in the same place. This would mean that fantasy RB2s, 3s, and 4s are still getting the same number of points or more year over year, even if the RB1s aren’t.
To further this point, here is another chart showing the total fantasy points scored by the top 50 running backs for the past 10 years.
As the trendline shows, the total points scored by running backs has been gradually increasing. That means that even though RB1s aren’t scoring as high, running backs as a position are scoring more points. If you charted the points per game of all running backs for each year you would be able to see the shape of the more recent years’ line getting flatter. This phenomenon makes sense when you think about how common running back by committee has become. More and more backs are tending to have at most a 60% snap share and so they also tend to score similarly game to game.
This statistical trend is going to influence how you draft/manage your dynasty teams and how you will be drafting your redraft leagues in the future. You may have already noticed it. “Starting” running backs are going to end up being equal in value or sometimes even less valuable than WR2s on some teams. “Starting” is in quotes there because teams like the Seahawks, Eagles, Bears, Lions, and Commanders usually have at least two start-able backs each week. Therein lies the issue.
A player like Zach Charbonnet is an explosive, young running back that should have a long and successful future. But, if he only ever sees at most 10 carries and 4 targets per game, it’s hard to value him more than even an average WR2 in a PPR format. If you’ve done a dynasty startup draft this year, you may have found yourself in a position where you have the chance to pick one of those “starting” committee backs but ended up passing because you thought you could get the same value later in the draft. This is the effect I’m referring to. As the NFL moves away from the “bell cow back,” running backs in fantasy will end up all being relatively similar.
It’s why I have found myself passing on/dealing my running backs to draft/trade for receivers. Of course, the anomalous players like Christian McCaffrey are still going to be worth 1st round picks. But after guys like that go off the board, it’s better to look to other positions for value until you absolutely need to roster a running back. Now, I don’t want you to read this and go immediately to sell your shares of every committee running back. Just keep it in mind the next time you get a trade offer for guys like Khalil Herbert or Brian Robinson that puts you at a disadvantage in other positions.
In summary, the running back position in fantasy football is losing its statistical diversity as the positional culture in the NFL changes. The fantasy value of some “starting” running backs has decreased with increased competition for touches. The result is that, outside of half a dozen elite players, most running backs are all ending up within the same tier or only separated by a couple of points. The shift will cause fantasy owners to reevaluate their drafting and teambuilding strategies. It may have already happened to you!
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