2023 Defensive Player of the Year Futures
Will Nick Bosa be a repeat winner? Can Aaron Donald win the award for an NFL record 4th time in his career? NFL Defensive Player of the Year futures are widely available now and with free agency starting to cool down, there is no better time than now to start taking a look at who we like to win the award in 2023.
First, lets take a look at recent winners and see if there are any trends that we can find.
- 10 of the last 11 winners were on teams that made the playoffs
- 9 of the past 11 winners were primarily pass rushers
- 9 of the last 11 winners were 27 years old or younger (Average age of 25.7)
- 7 of the last 11 winners were in the top 2 in sacks for that season (5 of the last 11 were the sack leader)
Ideally, we want to look for pass rushers under 28 years old that will be on playoff teams. Now, lets take a look at some of the odds that are available.
Of the guys listed in the table above, there are 3 of them that meet the requirement of pass rusher under 28 years old and are also on a team with odds less than +200 to win their division in 2023. Those are the 3 that I will be putting my money on.
- Micah Parsons (0.75u to win 6.75u Barstool +900) – 23 years old. The Cowboys are +175 to win the NFC East. Coming off a 13.5 sack season in 2022. Had the most pressures per pass rush attempt (according to PFF) at 18.4%
- Nick Bosa (0.5u to win 5.5u FanDuel +1100) – 25 years old. The 49ers are -160 to win the NFC West. Coming off an 18.5 sack season in 2022. Had the 2nd most pressures per pass rush attempt (according to PFF) at 17.7%
- Aiden Hutchison (0.25u to win 10u Barstool +4000) – 22 years old. The Lions are +130 to win the NFC North. Coming off a 9.5 sack season as a rookie in 2022. Had the 4th most pass rush attempts last year (according to PFF) at 566. Looking for him to improve on his 9.4% pressure rate in his second year
A couple parting notes:
- Risking 1.5u in total. +6u if Parsons wins. +4.5u if Bosa wins. +8.75u if Hutchison wins.
- Making the playoffs is key. I immediately discounted Maxx Crosby because of this and also throws up some red flags for Myles Garrett, TJ Watt, Aaron Donald and Brian Burns
- It is incredibly hard to win this award as a cornerback which made me cross Sauce Gardner off this list. If you want to take a chance on him, bet him at Barstool where his odds are more than 30% higher than any other book
- Quinnen Williams did get a first place vote in 2022 and could very well be on a playoff team in 2023 with the Jets likely addition of Aaron Rodgers. I am off of him at the moment but Barstool again, with larger odds than anywhere else, is certainly making it tempting at 50 to 1
Thanks for reading, good luck and follow me on Twitter at @tackleboxprops.