Bold IDP Predictions for 2023
We are just over 3 weeks away from the start of the NFL season, the wait is almost over. I can soon rid my Sundays of the honey do lists and fill them with 12 straight hours of yelling at players for missing tackles.
I. Can’t. Wait.
To help myself (and anyone else who cares to read this) pass the time, I’ve come up with some bold predictions for the upcoming season below. All subjective and rate stats were taken from PFF. Enjoy!
1. Josh Allen 12+ sacks
Allen’s career high in sacks is 10.5 back in his rookie season in 2019. Since then, he hasn’t topped 7.5 sacks in any season but there are some reasons to believe that he can improve on those numbers this year. Last season, Allen was t-10th in pressures, t-7th in hurries and t-5th in QB hits, but only t-43rd in sacks total sacks in the NFL. He only converted 8.8% of his pressures into sacks last season while the league average among edge players converted around 16% of time. If Allen can convert those pressures into sacks at a league average rate, he has a chance to set a career high in sacks in 2023.
2. Jaelan Phillips 12+ sacks
Phillips career high in sacks is only 8.5 but, just like Allen above, Phillips has all of the same reasons to believe that a breakout is coming. In 2022, Phillips was t-7th in pressures, t-7th in hurries and t-6th in QB hits but was also only t-43rd in sacks for the season. He converted 12.9% of his pressures into sack last year. If Phillips can take a step forward in his 3rd year while turning more of those pressures into sacks, he should be able to blow he previous career high out of the water.
3. Ernest Jones 150+ tackles
The math for this is one is simple. Jones has a 14.1% tackle rate over his 2-year career. Bobby Wagner player 1079 snaps last season and has now gone back to Seattle leaving Jones as the LB1 in LA. If Jones is able to play the same number of snaps in 2023 as Wagner did last year while maintaining his 14.1% tackle rate, that puts him at 152 tackles. Only 6 players were able to accomplish this feat in 2021 and 10 players in 2022. If Jones can stay on the field, this should be within reach.
4. Shaq Thompson 140+ tackles
Thompson just turned 29 in April and is coming off a career high 135 tackle season in 2022. He has never really been a high tackle rate linebacker in his 8-year career, hovering around a 12% tackle rate. So, what leads me to believe he can set another career high this season? The answer is Ejiro Evero. Evero’s debut as a defensive coordinator in the NFL last year resulted in both Josey Jewell (9.8 tackles/game) and Alex Singleton (9.6 tackles/game) setting career highs in tackles. I am hoping for the same fate for Thompson in 2023.
5. Xavier McKinney 3+ sacks
It’s no secret, Giants Defensive Coordinator Wink Martindale loves to blitz. In fact, the Giants had 5 DBs in the top 20 for pass rush attempts in 2022. McKinney was t-8th amongst all DB’s with 38 pass rush attempts last season but he did that in just 9 games. He did only record 1 sack last season (first of his career) but if he rushes the passer at the same rate as he did in 2022, I’m hoping that he can get to the QB a few times and quadruple his career total.
6. Kamren Curl 120+ tackles
Did you really think I’d make a bold prediction article without including Kam Curl? He is the only safety in the league to have played at least 600 snaps and have greater than an 11% tackle rate in each of the last 3 seasons. Curl only had 83 tackles last season, but he did only appear in 12 games and the Commanders defense was only on the field for 998 total snaps (4th fewest in the NFL). If the Commanders defense is on the field closer to the league average amount of snaps (1066) in 2023 and Curl can continue to flirt with a 12% tackle rate, this has a real shot at happening.
These are 6 of my favorite bold IDP predictions for 2023. Are any of them too bold? Not bold enough? How many of them will end up being correct? I would love to hear what your thoughts are and any other bold predictions that you might have.
Thanks for reading, good luck and follow me on X at @tackleboxprops.