Breakout Candidates for the 2023 Fantasy Football Season
Unlike sleepers, a breakout candidate could win you that championship. Assuming they break out of course. These candidates are players I believe can jump into the top 20 of their positions. Listed below are my favorite breakout candidates by position for 2023.
QB- Atlanta Falcons- Desmond Ridder
I am at the top of the highest mountain screaming Ridder is him! In my Bold Predictions article, I explain why Ridder finishes as a top 15 Quarterback this season. The recipe for success is there for Ridder. All camp his teammates were saying his leadership is second to none. He wants to win. Since stepping on the field in college, Ridder is undefeated at home. This includes the two home games he played in the NFL. Four of his first six games are at home! Talk about a hot start! I think it is possible Ridder throws for over 3,500 yards with 22 or more touchdowns. This is his breakout year to dominate the NFL like he did in college.
RB- Minnesota Vikings- Alexander Mattison
It is MattiSZN! Mattison has waited patiently behind Dalvin Cook since 2019. He knows the offense. In each year since 2020 he has at least one top 10 finish. He runs well. He catches well. Cook in that span averaged 268 rushing attempts per season. If Mattison sees anything north of 200 touches, then it is possible we see him gain over 1,000 yards. I think a sure thing is seeing Mattison with over 800 yards rushing with over 220 yards receiving. Plus, maybe 7-9 touchdowns. Say it with me MattiSZN!
WR- Washington Commanders- Jahan Dotson
Wide Receiver Terry McLaurin is already battling injury, turf toe. Dotson has reliable hands. He also fits the mold of what Joshua Downs was to Sam Howell at North Carolina. A trusted slot Wide Receiver that can pick up yards in bunches. New Offensive Coordinator Eric Bieniemy will find ways to utilize Dotson’s skill set. Last season Dotson missed weeks 5 through 9. He is healthy and ready to make plays. Look out for him to be the target leader, possibly leading receiver, for the Commanders this year.
TE- Arizona Cardinals- Trey McBride
Zach Ertz is the starting Tight End when healthy. Right now, he is battling injury. This leaves plenty of opportunity for McBride. A complete Tight End. He can run routes. He can catch. He can block in both passing and running games. He will see the field early and often. He should fit behind Marquise Brown as the second-best receiving option. Even though he might see the field more than Brown.
Flex- New Orleans Saints- Chris Olave
Quarterback Derek Carr will elevate Olave to the next level. Over the past three-seasons Carr has had at least one receiver with 100 receptions, more than 1,000 yards, and 9 touchdowns. I expect no difference this year. He will not have a year like Davante Adams last season (Over 1,500 yards and 14 touchdowns). I can see him get 100 receptions with less yards per catch than his 2022 season (14.47). If he has 11.4 yards per catch this season with 100 receptions, then that is over 1,100 yards. Add 9 touchdowns. That is a possible 268 fantasy points. That makes him WR7 in 2022. Breakout top 10 year is coming for Olave.
DL- Indianapolis Colts- Kwity Paye
Paye played three less games than he did in 2021. He still managed to get 13 more tackles and 2 more sacks. Shaquille Leonard is working through concussion protocol. The team lost Linebacker Bobby Okereke to the Giants. The team will need a healthy Paye to show dominance like he did in week 1 of last year. He had 7 tackles and 2 sacks. If he plays a full 17 games, we may see him go north of 60 tackles with 8 or more sacks this season. That is enough to put him in the top 20 for defensive lineman.
LB- Houston Texans- Christian Harris
The Texans have separated ways with three of their top 5 tacklers from last season. Harris was number 5. Rookie Jalen Pitre dominated being the tackler leader. They did add stud Edge Rusher Will Anderson with a top 4 pick in the 2023 draft. Nonetheless, Harris will see an uptick in usage as he did towards the end of the season last year. He missed the first 5 games before earning his shot last season. He was on pace to see over 100 tackles last season. He will likely join the 100-tackle club this season.
DB- Atlanta Falcons- Jeff Okudah
The former first-round pick has been a bust thus far. He joins a defense with a shutdown corner in A.J. Terrell. This means opposing Quarterbacks may target him more. This is a fresh start for him. He has yet to play a full season. That could be why he has had a lack in success. With teams attacking him with plenty of targets, I think he can get at least 3 interceptions. Along with just over 80 tackles.
IDP- Jacksonville Jaguars- Travon Walker
Last season Walker averaged just over 50% snap percentage. He will need to work on getting to the Quarterback more. With pressure coming from all sides, I think it is possible he flip-flops with Josh Allen as the bigger threat coming off the edge. He will need to get more than 8 sacks to make that happen. This is possible. Especially if we see him for a full season. If Walker by chance sees a 5% increase in snap percentage, we could see a big season from him.
Those are my breakout candidates for the 2023 season. Do you agree with them? Let me know some of your breakouts in the comments.
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If you want to win an IDP championship, make sure you check out our IDP Rankings for 2023.