Ten years ago at this time I would be sitting by the pool with a cold beer in hand. Football was not on my mind. I would participate in redraft leagues every year. Our drafts would happen around the third or fourth week of August. I would begin doing my research for the upcoming season around the last week of July. Fast forward to today. I am fully invested into dynasty style leagues. I am constantly figuring out ways how to better my team. Some players values are skyrocketed during the off season. Other players slide the ranks allowing them to be acquired for almost nothing. It is easy to fall in love with any team you draft. The Golden Rule in dynasty fantasy football leagues is, YOU DO NOT WIN AT THE DRAFT. Here is a list of Quarterbacks that I think have good value to sell, and some that I believe have a buy low window right now.
SELL HIGH
Green Bay Packers- Jordan Love
Aaron Rodgers is out, Jordan Love is in. After four seasons of sitting behind Rodgers. The time is now. Let’s take a trip back to 2021. Week 9 at Kansas City. The only game we see Love play 100% of the snaps. He threw for just under 56% completion. On 19 completions he threw for 190 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. He also ran 5 times for 23 yards. This was a game with star Wide Receiver Davante Adams playing. Green Bay no longer has Adams. Their Wide Receiver room is filled with hopefuls. We hope Christian Watson is the monster we saw from weeks 10 through 13 last season. But through that run he averaged 4 receptions with 1.75 touchdowns per game. Scoring almost twice per week seems unlikely. We hope Romeo Doubs is consistent enough to put up numbers like he did week 3 last season. Doubs had 8 targets, 8 receptions for 73 yards, and one touchdown. We hope the rookies Jayden Reed, Luke Musgrave, Tucker Kraft, and Dontayvion Wicks all find success for Love’s sake. There is a lot of hopes for Love this season. Being a starting Quarterback in Super Flex leagues holds value though. If you could get a first and second for him, I would do that. I see him as a Derek Carr type Quarterback. Maybe, just maybe he cracks the top 15, or at best top 12. He is more likely to stay around between QB17 to QB25. Who knows if all this hope does not pan out then his value could plummet outside of just one first.
Seattle Seahawks- Geno Smith
Geno Smith had a career year last season. The Seahawks rewarded him by adding arguably the top Wide Receiver of this class, and my personal second best Running Back of this class. Wide Receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba could become a perfect key to unlocking Smith even more. He is a solid option to control the slot up the middle, or if need be, could dominate on the outside. Running Back Zach Charbonnet is the perfect complement to now sophomore Running Back Kenneth Walker. I believe after drafting Charbonnet that Head Coach Pete Carroll wants to run the ball even more. Not because the passing game did not work. Simply so that Smith does not have to throw for over 550 times again. If Smith threw 50 less times in 2022 with the same completion percentage, then he would have thrown for less than 3,800 yards. Roughly 500 yards less. By doing so he would finish in the QB13 to QB15 range. Almost a full ten spots less than what he finished this year at QB5. A top 5 Quarterback in Super Flex leagues could easily go for at least two first round picks. Can you flip Smith for two first in your league? If so, smash accept that. I do not know how many people would accept a deal for Smith for two first. So, instead if you can get a first and second for Smith I would accept. I think that is fair value considering this was his only season in his now 10-year career of throwing more than 13 touchdowns and 3,100 yards.
Buy Low
New Orleans Saints- Derek Carr
One of the most underrated Quarterbacks in the NFL. Four out of the past five seasons he has thrown for over 4,000 yards. That odd season being last season because he sat out the last two games. He was just under 500 yards short of 4,000 again. Of his 9-year career Carr has only missed 5 games total. Now he gets a fresh, young, hungry Wide Receiver core. This may throw some people off. They may be afraid that his weapons aren’t as experienced as they were in Las Vegas. Maybe the uncomfortably of not knowing what is going to happen with star Running Back Alvin Kamara makes people worry about Carr this season. Whatever it may be, I still believe he can throw for over 4,000 yards again. Possibly even throw for over 30 touchdowns. A feat that he has only done once in his 9-year career. If you can trade a projected early 2024 second plus early 2024 fourth for Carr, I would. Or even better if you can trade a projected late 2024 second plus an early 2024 third, I would.
Dallas Cowboys- Dak Prescott
Losing offensive coordinator Kellen Moore to the Los Angeles Chargers definitely hurts. Also losing a trusted target like Tight End Dalton Schultz stings a bit. Each team in the NFC East made big moves in the off season to strengthen their defenses. Three signs that could possibly downgrade Prescott’s 2023 performance.
The Cowboys did trade for a reliable Wide Receiver in Brandin Cooks. From week 8 to week 17 Prescott was QB6. After watching some of his tape. I noticed the mistakes weren’t on him, but the Wide Receivers were not gaining enough separation. They were bottom 3 in averaged yards of separation. Making Prescott the league leader in tight window throws. The addition of Brandin Cooks will help this offense move all eyes from star Wide Receiver CeeDee Lamb. Plus, Running Back Tony Pollard gets full control of the backfield. This is the year the Cowboys could be explosive out the gate.
Buy Dak Prescott! If you can trade a late 2024 first and second round pick for him, do it. If you are lucky offer an early and late 2024 second, and a mid-2024 third round pick for him. If they accept that offer you will have struck gold.
New England- Mac Jones
Mac Jones finished at QB24 last season. He did not even eclipse over 3,000 passing yards. The Patriots signed vertical Tight End Mike Gesicki. Telling me they want to pound the rock up the middle and attack the middle of the field with their big Tight Ends. Gesicki will be a great complement to Tight End Hunter Henry. They also brought in field stretcher Juju Smith-Schuster which should open up the short intermediate routes for the Running Backs. I do think Jones can beat his value at QB24. Possibly reaching the top 18. If you can acquire him for a 2024 late second and third, I would send it. If you have Quarterback Ryan Tannehill and a late 2024 second send that for Jones. Tannehill will not be starting by week 8.
Buy Super Low
Indianapolis Colts- Gardner Minshew
Last season Minshew showed in week 16 that he can still have great performances. He threw for over 300 yards with 3 touchdowns (2 passing, one rushing). He did have two interceptions too. But for week 16 he was QB5. He is projected to be the backup for fourth overall pick Anthony Richardson. Richardson looks phenomenal, like an all-pro talent ready to take over the league. But what if? What if he is not what we expect. What if preseason shows us he is not ready to start quite yet. Then that would mean Minshew takes control with some solid weapons around him. He could give you decent points on a weekly basis if he ever has to start. If you can trade two 2024 fourths for Minshew then send it.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Kyle Trask
I feel like there will be a Quarterback battle the entire preseason. Mayfield is the more experienced Quarterback, but he has also shown his flaws every year. On the other hand, Trask now has two years of experience in the Tampa offense. That is two years learning behind arguably the Greatest of All Time, Tom Brady. The advantage could be to take the Quarterback that knows the offense, the locker room, and the coaches. If given the nod to start, then Trask is set up with one of the top Wide Receiver duos in the league. I am not saying he will be great, but if Trask starts and gets me a QB23-25 finish then I would be happy sending a couple 2024 fourths for him.
Conclusion
Every Quarterback’s value will fluctuate between now and the end of the season. Knowing when to capitalize on their value is a huge part in playing the dynasty game. Cash out while you can. Rejoice in treasures acquired for cheap when given the opportunity. Either way have fun. Even if you think there is no way they would accept that trade, send it. There is an old saying, “You never know, until you know.”
Thank you for reading my Buy/Sell Quarterback edition. Stay tuned for other positions to follow.
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