In Superflex dynasty leagues the Quarterback position typically holds the most value. The ability to potentially start two Top 15 Quarterbacks is huge considering they usually score the most points. To me the second most important position is Running Back. Last year only six Running Backs outscored the QB16. Having a valuable Running Back that can consistently get you double digit points is a huge advantage for your team. Like the Quarterback position though, you want to sell before the dip or buy before the explosion. Here is my list of Running Backs you should be buying or selling.
Sell High
Tennessee Titans- Derrick Henry
If your team looks like it will make it to the final four, then keep Henry. This may be the ticket to a championship. If your team is anything less, you should capitalize on Henry’s value now. Four out of the past five seasons he has finished top 5. The past 5 seasons he has rushed for double digit touchdowns. 2021 was the only year he did not rush for over 1,000 yards in the last 5 seasons. He ran for 937 yards in 8 games. If you watch him play you might think you are watching a game from the 1990’s considering his brutal running style. He is a monster. Henry turns 30 this year, and age eventually catches up to all Running Backs.
If you are a rebuilding team, or a team missing a few extra pieces to be well rounded to compete then here is your window. If you can get a projected mid 2024 first round pick, then make the trade. I would. That could land you a Running Back like Arkansas Raheim Sanders, or Ohio State’s Tre’Veyon Henderson. I do think both Running Backs will be solid contributors once in the NFL. I would also accept a trade for Minnesota Vikings Running Back, Alexander Mattison, plus a 2024 second. If I am competing for a final four spot I would much rather have Henry on my team than Mattison. I know Henry produces RB1 upside every time he is on the field. I do expect Mattison to have a great season, but it is unknown if he can carry the workload for 17 games.
Green Bay Packers- Aaron Jones
A Top 10 Running Back the past four seasons. A trusted receiving option to former Quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Jones has had more than 60 targets each of the last four seasons. This year the Packers addressed the receiving room. They drafted Wide Receivers Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks to pair along with rookie sensation Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs. Tight Ends Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft also add depth after losing Tight End Robert Tonyan. Maybe the idea is to let new starting Quarterback Jordan Love throw down the field more. If this is the goal, I could see them use more of running mate AJ Dillon. A solid goal line bruiser that can also be a three-down back.
Last year was the third worst yards per carry average in Jones’ six-year career. It was also the year he rushed for the least number of touchdowns in his career with 2. Running mate AJ Dillon had 7 rushing touchdowns. If AJ Dillon does flip the script to become the full starter, then Jones value absolutely collapses. If you can sneak if him for a younger back like Tampa Bay’s Rachaad White plus a late second, accept. If you are looking for just picks, then personally, I am happy with late first or early second for him.
New Orleans Saints- Jamaal Williams
There has never been a better time to sell Jamaal Williams. After his first Top 15 performance in his six-year career, now is the time. He ran for 17 touchdowns on just over 4 yards per carry in 2022. New Orleans Saints star Running Back, Alvin Kamara, might be suspended for the first few weeks. Yes, the team drafted TCU Running Back Kendre Miller. Miller brings an explosiveness Williams may not have.
Williams does have the experience which could give him the early season nod if Kamara does miss time. If you could get a late 2024 second or anything earlier straight up for Williams, accept that. Try to change Williams into rookies Eric Gray or Chase Brown plus a 2024 third round pick. I like the upside of Gray with the Giants and Brown with the Bengals.
Buy Low
Atlanta Falcons- Tyler Allgeier
Yes, it is true. The Atlanta Falcons drafted arguably the dynasty RB1 right now, Bijan Robinson. Let us take a trip down memory lane. Last year in his final four games Allgeier averaged 19.75 carries a game with 107.25 yards per game. That is roughly 5.4 yards per carry. Add two rushing touchdowns to that mix. I fully expect Robinson to take the majority of snaps if healthy. If for whatever reason Robinson cannot go, then Allgeier becomes high priority in the run first offense. Right now, he is more of an insurance acquisition. But with his value being so low since the drafting of Robinson, buy while you can. If you can trade a 2024 third for him, do it. Honestly if you can trade Jamaal Williams for Allgeier and a 2024 third I would.
New Orleans Saints- Alvin Kamara
The reason you are selling Jamaal Williams is the same reason you are buying Kamara. Kamara might be suspended for the first few games. The Saints brought in Williams to possibly take away goal line carries. The Saints drafted Kendre Miller. A running back that averaged 6.2 yards per carry last season. Basically, signs that could possibly give a Kamara holder reason to want to sell.
With the unknown of what is to come I am trying to acquire him on the low. If you can trade a 2024 second for him, do it. If you need to throw in a third to sweeten that deal, do it now. I would also trade Dameon Pierce with a late 2024 third for Kamara and early 2024 second. Kamara’s value could still be high due to his consistent Top 10 finishes. In his first five seasons he finished in the top 10, but last year he was RB16. Ask your league mate. If he is on the block, pursue.
San Francisco 49ers- Elijah Mitchell
The 49ers made the blockbuster of the year last year in my opinion acquiring gifted Running Back Christian McCaffrey. Let us not forget about back up Elijah Mitchell. In year one he showed some explosiveness with 5 games over 100 yards. Add a touchdown to each of those games. He has battled with injuries in his first two seasons. Appearing in only 16 games within that span. McCaffrey will without a doubt be the RB1 of this team. A healthy Mitchell will likely get the nod at the backup role. Like Allgeier he is a high insurance piece with potential value throughout the season. If you can acquire Mitchell for a couple of 2024 thirds, send it. If you are able to sneak out a 2024 third and fourth for him then definitely do that.
Buy Super Low
Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Chase Edmonds
It is looking like it is Rachaad White season in Tampa! White showed off his ability to catch the ball during college, and even gather 50 receptions on 58 targets last season. Edmonds is a change of pace back with pass catching abilities. If for whatever reason White is not given a three-down back role, then Edmonds may the back to acquire. Right now, Edmonds is less of a value than undrafted rookie free agent Sean Tucker. That is wild to me! Do not get me wrong, I love Tucker! But since he went undrafted, I have reason to doubt Tampa Bay making Tucker relevant in year one. Edmonds brings the experience as a specific position. He will not take the three-down role, but it is likely he is efficient as the change of pace guy. I would trade a 2024 4th for Edmonds. If you can acquire him for 7th round Running Backs Lew Nichols or Kenny McIntosh, do it.
Chicago Bears- D’Onta Foreman
Right now the Running Back room in Chicago consists of Roschon Johnson, Khalil Herbert, Travis Homer, and Foreman. Johnson the prized rookie that was efficient in college but was back up to star Running Back Bijan Robinson. Herbert showed in week 3 last season that he can have huge upside. He rushed for 157 yards and 2 touchdowns. Homer is likely the cheapest to acquire. He has been a backup for his career. Which leaves us Foreman, possibly the second cheapest to acquire from this room. Like the rookie, Foreman also went to University of Texas except he was drafted in the third round. Johnson was a fourth-round pick. Before last season Foreman had yet to play a full 17 games during the regular season. In his first five seasons he never played more than 10 games. Foreman is not a pass catching back limiting his upside in an offense that will run through Quarterback Justin Fields. BUT if healthy all season, it is possible, he is the starting back for this team. Even if he is not the three-down back, he could be crazy efficient in a two-down role. His career average is 4.29 yards per carry. If you can acquire him for a 2024 fourth round pick, do it. If you could trade Running Backs like Sean Tucker, or Washington’s Chris Rodriguez for Foreman, do it.
Every league mate has different values for their players. You never know the value on any player until you ask. Even if they want the moon for one player, they may only want a bag of pennies for another. It is always worth to ask. Worst case they say no without negotiating. I hope you enjoyed this article on Running Backs you should be buying low and selling high.
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