Every year we hype up different players we drool over. Maybe, that is an over statement. Either way we all have our guys for every football season. Here are 5 bold predictions (6 players if you include two for Bold Prediction #4) I have for the upcoming season.
Atlanta Falcons- Desmond Ridder
BOLD PREDICTION: Desmond Ridder will end the season as a Top 15 Quarterback!
In 2020 Atlanta Falcons Head Coach Arthur Smith was the Offensive Coordinator for the Tennessee Titans. That year he led Quarterback Ryan Tannehill to a Top 8 finish. Tannehill threw for 3,819 yards with 65.5% completion and 33 touchdowns. He averaged 238.7 yards per game. Running Back Derrick Henry also led the league in rushing with 1,540 yards that season. Tannehill also had stud Wide Receiver A.J. Brown who averaged 20.2 yards per catch. Brown had 52 receptions. That is the point.
The recipe for success is created for Ridder. He has one of the best Running Back prospects ever joining his team, Bijan Robinson. He has a young talented receiver, Drake London. London caught 61.5% of his targets for 866 yards. In four-games last season Ridder averaged 177 yards per game. Tannehill averaged 61.7 yards per game more during his Top 8 season. Here is the kicker. Ridder will get his secret weapon back. Star Tight End, Kyle Pitts. Pitts had a knee injury in week 11, sidelining him the rest of the season. Ridder and Pitts have yet to play a game together. During Pitts rookie year he averaged 60.3 yards per game. The recipe is created for Ridder. All he must do is execute it.
New York Giants- Daniel Jones
BOLD PREDICTION: Daniel Jones will elevate further into a Top 5 Quarterback.
Say what you want about Danny Dimes. My guy executed a Top 10 finish last season. The best part is he did it without a notable Wide Receiver core. Sure, he only threw 15 touchdowns. He also ran for 708 yards. That was fourth overall amongst Quarterbacks. Justin Fields, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson being the Quarterbacks ahead of him. He almost doubled his rushing attempts from 2021 to 2022. Jones is elevating his game. That is thanks to Head Coach Brian Daboll.
Before becoming the Head Coach of the New York Giants, Daboll was the Offensive Coordinator for the Buffalo Bills. In 2018 Daboll went through some growing pains with now Superstar Quarterback, Josh Allen. Allen threw 10 touchdowns with 12 interceptions through 12 games played. In his first two full seasons with Allen 2019 and 2020 there is a massive difference in production. Allen saw a 47% increase in yardage. The Bills did acquire Wide Receiver Stefon Diggs in 2020. A speedy technical field stretcher type of runner. I expect the Giants to use rookie Wide Receiver Jalin Hyatt the same type of way. A speedy down the field threat that can make the play once the ball is in his hands. They also acquired Top 5 Tight End, when healthy, Darren Waller.
Let’s say Jones throws for 40% more yards than he did last season. That would be 1,282 more yards, or 4,487 yards. If he throws for more then I will expect him to run less. We will see less than 700 rushing yards from Jones, but he may still get 6-8 rushing touchdowns. Allen saw a 54% increase in passing touchdowns from 2019 to 2020. Let’s say Jones throws 47% more touchdowns, or 22 touchdowns. IF Jones finished with a stat line of 4,487 passing yards, 22 passing touchdowns, 550 rushing yards, and 6 rushing touchdowns then last season that would have been 402 fantasy points. A Top 5 finish! Behind Patrick Mahomes, Allen, Joe Burrow, and Hurts. I believe Daboll is a great coach. He believes in Jones, we all should too.
Houston Texans- Dameon Pierce
BOLD PREDICTION: Dameon Pierce rushes for over 1,300 yards.
Before getting hurt Pierce was getting the rock. The team trusted him with the ball. He did see less than 65% snap share. Yet, he was still on pace to hit over 1,200 yards before injury in week 14. Pierce was one the first rookies to hit over 1,000 total yards last season. That is probably because he has “fresh legs”. Since joining the Florida Gators in 2018 to his first season with the Texans Pierce has only rushed the ball 549 times. To put that into perspective Running Back Najee Harris has rushed the ball 579 times in his two-seasons with the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Pierce did average a career low 4.2 yards per carry. Rookie Quarterback C.J. Stroud will take some of that pressure off. The team made some upgrades with offensive line to better run block. New Head Coach, DeMeco Ryans, is coming from an offense that utilized the run game. Although Ryans is a defensive minded coach I do expect him to bring some similar offensive traits to what a new look Texans offense will be.
Dallas Cowboys- CeeDee Lamb & Brandin Cooks
BOLD PREDICTION: The Dallas Cowboys will have two 1,000 yards Wide Receivers this year.
Quarterback Dak Prescott has had two 1,000 yards before. In 2019, Prescott threw for over 4,900 yards. Who were the receivers? Amari Cooper led the team with 79 receptions for 1,189 yards. Michael Gallup had 66 receptions for 1,107 yards. Both receivers had over 110 targets. The run game was also strong. Ezekiel Elliott had over 1,300 yards.
Fast forward to 2023. Prescott is healthy. The team has an explosive running back in Tony Pollard, or Deuce Vaughn. Cooks is a veteran presence that knows the game well. Lamb will unquestionably be the WR1 for the team. Lamb has averaged over 1,100 yards in his first three-seasons. Cooks is a strong candidate to be the WR2. Not only that, but he is also strong enough to hold it down if Lamb were to go out. Over the past three-seasons Cooks has averaged 76 receptions, 115 targets, and 962 yards per season. That is 12.66 yards per catch through three-seasons. He has averaged more in three-seasons then what Gallup did in that one 2019 season. If Cooks can keep up that average but gain .6 yards more per catch (13.2) then he will get over 1,000 yards. Cooks has averaged over 13.2 yards per catch in 6 of his 9 NFL seasons.
Green Bay Packers- Luke Musgrave
BOLD PREDICTION: Luke Musgrave will be the top rookie Tight End in 2023.
Musgrave has all the talent to be the top receiving threat among the rookie Tight Ends. Dalton Kincaid has a Stefon Diggs problem. Sam LaPorta has an Amon-Ra St. Brown problem. Michael Mayer has a DaVante Adams problem. Each of those Tight Ends has a true alpha Wide Receiver that will receive majority of the targets. Some may think Christian Watson is the “alpha” Wide Receiver for the Packers. Personally, I believe that role is up for grabs. Here is why. Watson played 14 games last season. He had over 160 fantasy football points. (Number could be different based on your leagues scoring) From week 10 through week 13, 60.4% of his points were accumulated. He had 36.5% of his receptions in that span. 41% of his targets came in those 4 weeks. Here is the kicker, more than 50% of his yards came in those 4 weeks alone. Oh, and all his touchdowns were within those 4 weeks. Sure, Watson had an incredible run. Outside those 4 weeks he was, honestly, less than average for an “alpha” Wide Receiver.
Former Packers Tight End Robert Tonyan is no longer with the team. Tonyan is leaving behind 60+ targets. In his preseason debut Musgrave saw 80% route participation. That was third amongst starters. Musgrave can be a mismatch nightmare for opposing defenders. His issue through his career has been his health. He cannot seem to stay healthy. Through his four-seasons at Oregon State he recorded 47 receptions for 633 yards. In 2022 he only played in 2 games. He had 11 receptions for 169 yards and one touchdown. If HEALTHY, Musgrave will be the TE1 on the 2023 rookie Tight End class.
Thank you for reading! What are some BOLD PREDICTIONS that you have for the 2023 season? Let me know in the comments.
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