Three Linebackers I’m Fading for 2024
A large component of achieving success in fantasy IDP leagues derives from being able to accurately assess value right from the get-go within startup drafts. Being able to find sleeper picks buried within the depths of lower ADP ranks is vital to building a contender. However, reaching too far on certain players and falling for the guise of an inflated ADP can be devastating.
Just a few years back in 2021, Blake Martinez was the 5th linebacker going off the board in fantasy drafts, according to Sleeper’s ADP. Following a monster season which saw him record 151 tackles, Martinez would never be able to replicate this success and has played in a combined 8 games across three different teams following his monster 2020 campaign. Martinez’s downfall serves as an important reminder in studying the red flags associated with players, including injury history (in his case, a major ACL injury) and performance decline. With that in mind, the three linebackers detailed below are examples of players who could burn managers at their current ADP on Sleeper.
Please note that ADP data is constantly changing, and the values referenced are current as of May 12th, 2024.
#1 Pete Werner, New Orleans Saints
Werner’s ADP is currently sitting at LB54 on Sleeper. While that may seem like decent value, it’s difficult to rank the fourth-year Saints linebacker higher than some of the players just below his current ADP. For example, Lavonte David is right below Werner with an ADP of LB56, and he just came off an elite season that saw him record 133 tackles, 4.5 sacks and a forced fumble. Not only that, Lavonte David has only recorded less than 100 tackles twice in his twelve seasons with the Bucs, both of which came from seasons where he missed playing time. That’s an incredible floor, especially when you compare it to Werner, who now has three seasons under his belt and is yet to record 100 tackles.
If the age scares you away from a player like Lavonte David in dynasty drafts, just look at some of the other solid options below Werner, such as LB60, Kyzir White, who was on pace to smash his career tackle totals in a season with the Cardinals before getting injured in Week 11.
At this point, Pete Werner just feels like a linebacker that fantasy managers are trying to continually sell themselves on in accordance with his upside. After three seasons in the league, Werner has done nothing to establish himself as anything more than a really average linebacker for fantasy football purposes. Give me the veteran linebackers ranked below him instead.
#2 Divine Deablo, Las Vegas Raiders
Not a lot of people predicted that Robert Spillane would have the immediate impact that he did with the Raiders last season, but he quickly earned the trust of head coach Antonio Pierce and wore the green dot for Vegas. This was a disappointing development for managers with shares of Deablo and for those that drafted him prior to 2023, as he was expected to be a focal point of the Raider’s defense following a stint which saw him wear the green dot during mini-camp.
Deablo seems to be another one of these young linebackers that is getting drafted ahead of proven contributors given his youth and perceived upside. Currently, Deablo’s ADP is sitting at LB61 on Sleeper, which ranks him ahead of guys like Kaden Elliss (LB67), Ja’Whaun Bentley (LB70) and Jordan Hicks (LB72), all of whom had more productive seasons this past year. Reaching for Deablo over these proven assets could put your fantasy squad in purgatory early on.
#3 Dre Greenlaw, San Francisco 49ers
This one hurts…and I know it’ll ruffle some feathers. I’ll preface this by saying that I think Greenlaw is an awesome linebacker who boasts a prominent production profile. However, coming off a torn Achilles tendon in the Super Bowl, his current ADP of LB41 is just too rich. The reason for fading Greenlaw has nothing to do with performance metrics or production but is entirely injury related.
Even if Greenlaw is available come Week 1 of the NFL season, there are safer options below his current ADP, such as the aforementioned Robert Spillane (LB46,) or dependable veteran Eric Kendricks (LB51). What concerns me with the Achilles injury for Greenlaw is looking back at a player like Terrell Suggs with the Ravens. Suggs tore his Achilles in Week 1 of the 2015 season. Although there was a brief spike in 2017, the All-Pro linebacker’s production never really returned to the level fantasy managers were accustomed to. He failed to record more than 50 tackles in a season following the injury, and only recorded double-digit sacks (11) one last time in that 2017 spike season.
The above comparison is not trying to state that Greenlaw will be doomed to the same decline as other players who suffered a similar injury. However, it just demonstrates how detrimental the injury can be to positions that rely heavily on athleticism, such as linebackers. This contrasts with the quarterback injuries, where there is more optimism around players such as Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins in returning to their productive forms, given they are pocket passers who don’t require the movement skills like a player such as Greenlaw would.
I hope this article provided some helpful insight relative to players that are slightly rich given their current ADP. Remember that ADP is only one tool available to managers, and selections during drafts should come from a holistic approach that considers other factors such as production and situation.
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If you want to win a dynasty championship trophy, make sure you check out RPO’s Dynasty Linebacker Rankings or my IDP Dynasty Trade Calculator.