5 Start, 5 Sit for Week 1 of the 2023 NFL Season
Week one start and sit recommendations are tough because we don’t yet have any data to support claims. My general belief for week one is that you should start players that you spent early draft picks on. There’s no need to get cute and start Josh Reynolds over Drake London just because the matchup might be better. Start your starters and change things up in week two if you need to!
What I have here for you is a list of players I think you should find space for on your starting rosters if you can. Following that is a list of guys I would keep in your back pocket for later in the season (or not)!
Start:
Jahan Dotson vs ARI
Dotson showed a lot of promise last year in the games he took part in. He was tied with Christian Watson for most touchdowns by a rookie receiver while playing in two fewer games (and in a markedly worse offense). With Terry McLaurin’s week one status still uncertain, Dotson could be in line for a hefty amount of work against what many believe will be the worst team in football, the Arizona Cardinals. If you have a space to fit him in, give Dotson a chance.
Keenan Allen vs MIA
I’m not sure if it’s age or recent injury history, but I think a lot of fantasy players are forgetting how incredible Keenan Allen is. Even after missing the first half of the season last year, he came back and averaged 17+ points per game. In fact, over the past 5 years combined he has also averaged 17+ points per game. The guy can ball, and the offense has only gotten better with a new coordinator and a healthy offensive line. Do NOT sleep on Keenan Allen.
J.K. Dobbins vs HOU
This will be J.K. Dobbins’ first week 1 showing since his rookie season in 2020 and he has a lot going for him. He is clearly the 1st and 2nd down back on the Ravens and he gets the benefit of having potentially the most dangerous running QB in the league handing him the ball. New Offensive Coordinator Todd Monken is going to want more passing than in the previous system, so Dobbins shouldn’t be seeing 8 in the box as often this year. The additions of vet receiver Odell Beckham Jr. and rookie Zay Flowers should also aid in loosening up the linebackers. Dobbins has potential to be top 15 this year and you likely got him at the end of the 4th round, beginning of the 5th. He’s definitely a guy you will want to find space for this week against a bottom 5 run defense in Houston. Game script should be in his favor too!
Greg Dulcich vs LV
The Broncos’ receiving core has been dealing with injury all preseason, leaving only a few players left of any fantasy value. Dulcich should be able to provide Russell Wilson with a security blanket as he tries to get cooking once again. Even with the extremely subpar offense Denver had last year, Dulcich was able to earn himself 4 weeks of top 10 TE play in the 10 games he played. The expectation this year is that the team takes another step and that should include the second-year tight end.
Geno Smith vs LAR
Geno is going to be using week 1 against a divisional opponent to prove that giving him a 3-year, 75-million-dollar contract was worth it. He ended the 2022 season as the #5 QB in most scoring formats but is going as QB 16 in redraft formats. Seattle’s offense was already great, but then they added Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Zach Charbonnet to give Geno even more ways to score points. If you took Geno as a later QB in your draft or if you have him in your dynasty league, I would feel confident in having him lead your team this week (and all season)!
Sit:
All Rookie Quarterbacks: CJ Stroud @ BAL, Bryce Young @ ATL, Anthony Richardson vs JAC, and (maybe) Clayton Tune @ WAS
I find it very difficult to trust any rookie QB in their debut start and the specific matchups the rookies are facing this year further cement that decision. Richardson probably has the best matchup week 1 against the Jaguars, but it still isn’t a walk in the park. Unless you’re in a 2QB or a superflex league I would wait to see if any of these offenses have anything going on. As enticing as it may be to toss the new guy into your lineup right away, there is a pretty high chance it doesn’t work out for you. Stick to veterans week one and see how the rookies do for the weeks to come.
Russell Wilson vs LV
Speaking of quarterbacks I don’t trust, let’s talk about Russell Wilson. He’s coming off of his worst career year and has a lot to prove. Luckily for him, he gets the miracle that is the second coming of Sean Payton. Payton’s new culture and new offense should help Russ return to form, but with the receiving core depleted from injury and stud running back, Javonte Williams, coming off of a brutal knee injury, it could take a while for the Bronco’s oven to get preheated. Although Denver has an easy matchup against the Raiders week 1, I would give Russell a bit of time before putting him back in the kitchen.
Rashaad Penny @ NE
As much as I would love for Penny to be dynamite right away (Go Birds!), reports from camp tell a tale of mediocrity. The Eagles backfield screams committee anyway, but Penny hasn’t gotten the touch share people were expecting him to get when he signed with the team this Spring. Adding to the fact that any snap could be his last for the season and I start to get pessimistic about the 6th year back. This has the potential to end up on freezing cold takes, but I think it’s more likely that Penny ends up with 7 carries for 25 yards and no receptions.
James Cook @ NYJ
I haven’t been high on James Cook all offseason and honestly I’ve been a little confused why some people see him as a super relevant running back in fantasy. In the Ken Dorsey offensive scheme, the Bills passed 574 times and rushed 421 times; keep in mind that 124 of those rushing attempts were by Josh Allen, leaving only 292 attempts for actual running backs. Of those 574 pass attempts, only 131 went to the running backs. If there were a clear bell cow back in Buffalo those numbers wouldn’t be too bad, but 54% of those running back touches went to Devin Singletary not James Cook (28%). On top of that, the Bills brought in veteran backs Damien Harris and Latavius Murray after letting go of Singletary. My analysis of that RB room is that Cook never sees more than 50% of the snaps. Even if he sees all of the passing down work, the lack of volume won’t allow Cook to be more than flex worthy. Especially week 1, going up against one of the league’s best defenses, I would keep James Cook on the bench.
Mac Jones vs PHI
Mac Jones has never been a fantasy standout and I don’t see this year being all that different, even with an actual offensive coordinator! He has never scored more than 25 fantasy points in most scoring systems and the new “weapons” the Patriots brought in don’t make me think he’ll get anywhere close to that number. Week 1, Mac Jones and the Pats will be facing the Georgia Bulldogs – I mean the Philadelphia Eagles’ top 5 defense. Crushing pass rush and lock down secondary is a bad combo for a quarterback that isn’t very mobile and doesn’t have dynamic weapons. You may think that Bill O’Brien will be enough to make Mac Jones useful, and you may be right! But it is not going to be this week…
That’s what I have for you this week! as we get deeper into the season the analysis might get a little more technical, but for now I have to rely on my gut. If you want more Start/Sit advice or just want to hear me ramble during the games on Sunday, give me a follow on X @TFFGRobbie. To get some Start/Sit advice for IDP, go ahead and check out @ThePPRShow and he’ll get you squared away.
Make sure you check out our IDP Week 1 Start/Sit article as well.