5 Start, 5 Sit for Week 1 of the 2024 NFL Season
Week 1 of every year is the hardest to predict because all there is to go on is speculation. Obviously, guys like Christian McCaffrey and Patrick Mahomes are going to score points, but those more questionable guys that you drafted after round 6 are a different story. I’m going to go through 5 players that I would trot out week 1 and 5 guys that I would keep on the bench until later in the season.
Start:
Caleb Williams vs TEN – Start
I don’t typically suggest you start rookie quarterbacks in their first regular season games, but Williams has looked special. He is stepping into an offense with three star wide receivers, a reliable run game, and a more-than-serviceable offensive line. He’s bound to make mistakes, as rookies do, however, he does get to start his season against one of the weakest defenses in the league: the Tennessee Titans. It’s likely that if you drafted Caleb Williams, you drafted him to be your starter this year, so don’t let the big “R” next to his name dissuade you from putting in a high scorer. If ever there was a time to start a rookie week 1, it’s now and it’s Caleb Williams.
Gus Edwards vs LV – Start
From the outside looking in, the Chargers seem to have made a lot of…interesting personnel choices this offseason. Two that I think made sense, though, were the signings of J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards. Both running backs are tough, downhill runners that are very familiar with the Greg Roman offense set to be used in Los Angeles this year. Neither back signed record-breaking contracts, but Edwards is set to earn just about twice ($2.25m) as much as Dobbins ($1.13m) this year and was signed to a two-year deal instead of one. On top of that, Dobbins is returning from the second Achilles tear of his NFL career: a feat that seldom few players can attest to. While it is possible that Dobbins could overtake Edwards by the end of the season, I think that the Chargers have invested a lot more into Edwards and will likely try to ramp up Dobbins’ usage. I think that week 1, in a smash-mouth, hard-nosed, Jim Harbaugh Offense, is going to go through Gus Edwards.
Michael Pittman Jr. vs HOU – Start
I think Michael Pittman is going to be a problem all year, so I’ll start showing faith early. Even with Gardner Minshew at the helm, he was able to finish the season as a top 15 wide receiver (PPR). With the combined run threat of Jonathan Taylor and Anthony Richardson, I think Pittman is going to be even more open than he was last year. With an ADP that slips down into the fifth round in some leagues, you may be tempted to leave him on the bench in favor of some other players, but that will be a mistake. I think there is potential for Pittman to be a top 5 scorer in week 1, so get him in your lineup!
Greg Dulcich vs SEA – Start
I think Dulcich might be one of the more overlooked tight ends this season and, if he can stay on the field, he’ll be great for his rookie quarterback. Dulcich has only played in 12 games over his first two years, barely playing at all last year. If he can remain healthy, he figures to be one of the prominent pass catchers on a Broncos’ offense that lacks superstar talent. I think that in week 1, Bo Nix will be looking to Dulcich often in order to get a rhythm going. The Seahawks have great coverage against wide receivers, but tight ends might be able to give them trouble. If you waited a while to draft TE in redraft or are a bit lacking in that area in your dynasty league, Dulcich could be your guy.
Curtis Samuel vs ARI – Start
Speaking of overlooked, my last start recommendation this week goes to Curtis Samuel. Last name aside, this guy is like Deebo Samuel lite. He’s an all-around athlete that can take reps from out wide or can tote the rock between the tackles. On a team like Buffalo, I think he’s going to be a dangerous weapon for them. He has averaged just around 10 points per game while performing as the WR3 on considerably worse offenses. With Josh Allen at the helm and no immediate threat to his target share, I see him becoming a serious high-scorer this year. Don’t miss out on him week 1!
Sit:
Justin Herbert vs LV – Sit
Above, I mentioned that the Chargers made several interesting decisions this offseason. A couple of note were trading away BOTH of their top 2 receivers: Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. What is left for Herbert is a cast a former WR3s and a couple rookies with potential. Couple that with new Head Coach Jim Harbaugh’s run-first mindset and it’s easy to see why Herbert might be in for a repeat of a sub 4000-yard season. There are just too many questions about how the offense is going to run to be confident in having Herbert as your starter this week. If you have someone else, I’d give them a shot.
Any Cowboys’ Running back vs CLE – Sit
I say “any” running back because I’m not even sure who’s going to be getting the carries for this team. What I do know, is that no matter who it is, they are not going to have a good day against the Browns. The Browns last year allowed just over 100 total rushing yards per game. And that was against 17 teams with actual running backs! If Ezekiel Elliott is the starter, there is going to be a distinct lack of explosiveness from the Cowboy’s run game. Don’t let yourself be caught up in that foolishness.
Jerry Jeudy vs DAL – Sit
Jerry Jeudy has been a wide receiver with massive potential since entering the league in 2020. Unfortunately for him, each of those seasons has been marred with either bad coaching and/or bad quarterback play. Now that he’s in Cleveland, the hope is that he’ll finally be able to take the next step. However, even after Deshaun Watson became the starter two years ago, the Browns’ passing offense has only ever been “okay” at best. With so much uncertainty around whether Watson will return to form and whether Jeudy is actually a good receiver, I don’t think week 1 is the right time to roll those dice. Let him marinate for a few more weeks.
Pat Freiermuth vs ATL – Sit
Not to put too fine a point on how poorly I think the Steelers will be this week, but I truly considered avoiding the whole team. Freiermuth is a capable tight end, but the efficacy of the Steelers’ offense is going to be laughable. Until we see some consistent production out of them, I’d stay away from anyone not named Pickens. It’s likely that if Freiermuth is on your team you have another tight end that’s playable, so I’d say go with that guy.
Any Patriot vs CIN – Sit
I think we all know by this point that the Patriots are going to be a dumpster fire this year. Their wide receiver group is a smattering of 3rd tier free agent additions and middle round rookies. The team is now officially being led by the corpse of Jacoby Brissett, which means that any amount of offensive flashiness is pretty much off the table. The only decent facet of the offense is the run game, but that just means that defenses will be loading the box. I have very limited faith in any player on this team performing consistently well at all this year. Especially in week 1 when the team will still be figuring things out, I’d stay out of New England.
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