IDP Prop Bets for Week 16
Week 15 started out with heartbreak as we watched Ryan Neal miss a tackle on the last play of the game that would have put him over his number. Pain. Things quickly turned around over the weekend though as we were able to go 3-0 with the week 15 article picks, and 5-0 overall with my picks combined on Twitter. All of which were relatively stress free! Let’s hope the success can carry over into Week 16.
1.31u Harrison Smith o5.5 -131 Caesars
Last week we targeted the safety position against the Giants with Kam Curl and we are going to do it again this week with Harrison Smith. He has hit this over in 9/12 games on the season and after a 4 tackle performance last week, feels primed for a bounce back in a good matchup.
The Giants have allowed the 6th most tackles/game to safeties this season at 14.9/game. Over the last 3 weeks, they have allowed an astonishing 20.0 tackles/game to the position. Since their week 9 bye, the safety who played the most box snaps against the Giants has gone over this total in 5/6. The only miss being Jayron Kearse in week 12 with a 5 tackle performance.
Our projections have Smith at 7.1 tackles this week so we will gladly take this over at 5.5
1.2u Kyle Dugger o4.5 -120 Barstool
Dugger has gone over this in 8/12 games this season and has been hot lately, going over in 5 straight.
The Bengals have been a slightly positive matchup for safeties this season as they rank 13th in tackles allowed to the position at 13.2 per game. Over the last 3 weeks, they have been a better matchup to the position giving up 15.3 per game.
Dugger has played 8 games this season with more than 60% of the defensive snaps. He has gone over this number in 7 of those 8 games while getting more consistent snaps over the last 5 weeks. Our projections have Dugger at 5.3 tackles today so we like him to go over this number yet again.
1.2u Kaden Elliss o7.5 -120 MGM
Elliss has gone over this number in 3/4 games in which he has played 75% of the snaps. Those 4 games were without Pete Werner and he is out again today.
Cleveland ranks 2nd in the league in tackles allowed to LBs at 19.1 per game and have been an even better matchup recently, giving up 20.8 per game over their last 5.
Elliss has a tackle rate of 14.3% this year and the Browns are averaging 67 plays per game. Those numbers would put him at 9.6 expected tackles in this game. Our projections have him at 9.4 tackles. Here’s to hoping the Browns can control this game on the ground with the ugly forcast and Elliss can clear this number for us.
Thanks for reading, good luck this week and follow me on Twitter at @tackleboxprops.