5 Start, 5 Sit for Week 17 of the 2023 NFL Season
It’s finally time. The Championship is here and you can’t quite pick between two guys. Luckily, I’m here for you once again. One final week of hard-hitting, comprehensive fantasy football analysis. One final week of recommendations that are only right about 60% of the time. One last time: 5 good, 5 bad.
Start:
Baker Mayfield vs NO – Start
In the Championship, you need guys you can count on to score big points and this week Baker Mayfield is that guy. He’s been playing incredibly well the last few weeks, with over 800 yards and 9 total touchdowns in the last three games. When the Bucs played New Orleans earlier this year, Mayfield was 25/35 for 246 with 3 touchdowns and an interception. Enough to make him QB7 for the week. I think he’s a great start, especially in a week that the Bucs need to win to keep hold of the division.
James Conner vs PHI – Start
James Conner has also had a great stretch of games the past three weeks. With over 17 points (in a PPR) against some of the more physical run defenses in the league, he has another positive matchup against the Eagles. Philadelphia has had a very soft defense all year, and while the Cardinals’ offense isn’t anything special, Conner has been a workhorse for them. I see Conner getting a decent amount of work in the passing game too, which boosts his value even more.
Jordan Addison vs GB – Start
This Vikings team that is playing against the Packers this week is completely different from the one in week 8. The only skill starter that these games will have in common is Jordan Addison. In week 8, he went 7/8 for 82 yards and a touchdown. Now, the Vikings have their #1 receiver back, they have a reasonably competent run game, and they haven’t really taken a dramatic hit at quarterback (losing your starter is bad but it’s not as bad as what the Jets are dealing with). The Packers not having Jaire Alexander for this game means that they’ll be working overtime to cover Justin Jefferson, leaving Addison more open to repeat his performance from earlier in the year.
Trey McBride vs PHI – Start
We’re back in Philly now with another Cardinals recommendation. Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know that Trey McBride has emerged as a top 10 tight end this year. He doesn’t get into the end zone often, but his value between the 10’s is what make him relevant. He hasn’t had a game with fewer than 5 catches since week 9. If you play in a league with TE-premium scoring, that alone elevates him to flex-worthy status. Against the Eagles, who are quite susceptible through the air, I’m expecting him to potentially be the TE1 this week.
Nick Mullens vs GB – Start
Even throwing four picks against Detroit, Mullens still managed to be QB11 on the week with 19.5 points. This week against Green Bay, with their best defensive back suspended for a week, I don’t see him turning the ball over that much. He has three great pass catchers to throw to and a manageable run game to work with. I don’t think he’ll end up with 40 points, but I think he will end up in the Top 12 quarterback scorers this week. In one league of mine, I’m starting him in the championship match!
Sit:
Tua Tagovailoa vs BAL – Sit
I’m actually starting Mullens in place of Tua, ironically enough, and for a multitude of reasons. Tua hasn’t had a 3-touchdown game since week 8. He’s only had two 2-touchdown games in the same period of time. He’s also not been over 20 points since that game either. His team is winning games, but it’s really not due to his production. Couple all of that with the fact that the Dolphins are playing the best defense in the league this week on the road, and you get what I consider to be a must sit scenario.
Tony Pollard vs DET – Sit
There was a spark of hope a few weeks ago that Pollard might be fantasy relevant once again. That was apparently just a fleeting moment. His slight emergence was during a stretch of very soft run defenses, but as things started to get tougher, he regressed. Pollard has been on a steady decline in production since Week 12 and last week only mustered 5.3 points in a PPR. This week the Cowboys get Detroit and the toughest run defense in the league. I would find anyone, and I mean anyone else to start at running back this week.
DeAndre Hopkins vs HOU – Sit
Hopkins has been surprisingly boom or bust this year and strength of defense hasn’t seemed to play a major part in his production. What I can say for certain is that he did not play well against Houston the last time they played. He did manage to pull 9 targets his way, but only ended up with 2 catches for 21 yards. If Houston can get Stroud back in their lineup, this week’s game might get out of hand pretty fast, limiting Hopkins’ chances to make noise. If you’re in the championship this week, I think you probably have a better option at receiver.
Dalton Kincaid vs NE – Sit
Kincaid had a good stretch mid-season, but like many Buffalo pass catchers in recent years, he has kind of disappeared during the fantasy playoffs. After the midseason change in offensive play-caller, the Bills have been running the ball a lot more and have been finding success. Against Dallas two weeks ago, Josh Allen only completed 7 passes for 94 yards… and they won by like 30 points. Although New England has a really stout defense, I don’t know how involved in the offense Kincaid is going to have to be this week. I think you should go a different direction this week.
Gardner Minshew vs LV – Sit
Another week, another recommendation to sit Gardner Minshew. I feel bad for doing this two weeks in a row, but it’s just not the time for it. If you’re in a 1QB league and you’re in the championship, you HAVE to have a better quarterback to play. Minshew has only been statistically elite in one game this year and has been at best mediocre in the rest. Michael Pittman coming back would be a boost for him but still not enough to warrant a starting job on your team. He’s playing the Raiders this week, a team that was able hold Patrick Mahomes to 16.7 points. It’s not a good look for Minshew.
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