IDP Prop Bets for Wild Card Week
We took the week off from tackle props in week 18 as there were only a few games with lines and it felt like I was trying to force a play. We did, however, get our first career college football tackle prop win with Johnny Hodges over 4.5 on Monday night in the National Championship game. The true definition of degenerate. Let’s see if we can carry the momentum from Johnny Hodges and our 3-1 week 17 performance into the playoffs.
1.2u Cody Barton o8.5 -120 MGM
Barton has only gone over this total in 8/17 games this season, but he has actually gone over in 8/12 games in which he has played more than 70% of the snaps. 3 of those 4 misses have come against bottom 10 matchups for linebackers (Jets and Rams x2).
Last week, Barton played 100% of the snaps in Seattle’s first game after Jordyn Brooks injury and there is no reason to expect that to change this week. In both games against SF this year, Barton has gone over this number with 10 and 11 tackle performances.
SF ranks 7th in the league in tackles allowed to LB’s at 17.5/game. They have allowed at least one LB to go over this number in 6 of their last 7 games as well as allowed 15+ tackles to the position in every game besides 2 this year.
SF stat crew is fairly neutral as they rank 17th in assists and 14th in total tackles per opportunity.
1.05u Vonn Bell o4.5 -105 Draftkings
Bell has only hit this in 8/16 games this season but has been coming on recently to go over this total in 5 of his last 7. Dating back to last year, he has gone over in 3/4 against the Ravens with his only miss coming last week against the Anthony Brown led offense.
Baltimore ranks 2nd in the NFL in tackles allowed to safeties at 15.8/game. In the 5 games that Tyler Huntley has appeared in this season, the Ravens actually became a better matchup and allowed 17.4 tackles/game to safeties. 10 total safeties played at least 75% of the snaps in those 5 games. 9 out of those 10 went over this number with the only miss being Jaylinn Hawkins with 4 tackles in week 16.
Thanks for reading, good luck and follow me on Twitter at @tackleboxprops.