Busts for the 2023 Fantasy Football Season
First, I want to say every player that gets an opportunity to play in the NFL should be proud of themselves. Even making the practice squad is an achievement. A bust to me is a player that does not live up to the hype or finds a dip in production from the year prior. I have listed below my bust by position for the 2023 season.
QB- Indianapolis Colts- Anthony Richardson
The fourth pick in the NFL draft had a lot of question marks coming in. He blew up after his phenomenal combine performance. The pure talent was never the question. People were asking, “Can he put it all together at the pro-level?” Yes, talent goes a long way in the NFL. The separation between the good and the great though is adding the fundamentals with IQ for the game. Coming into the NFL, Richardson had a 54.7% completion percentage. In his first two appearances during the pre-season, he has had a 44.8% completion percentage. If he brings 54.7% completion percentage to the league, then last year that would have put him at QB58. Of course, he will have upside with his ability to create plays with his feet. The first four games will be a true test. He will start the season off without star Running Back Jonathan Taylor. This means opposing defenses might focus in on bringing the pressure to Richardson knowing the running game will not be as strong. He is currently projected to finish as QB17 in the RPO league on sleeper. If he throws for below 60% then I think he finishes closer to QB25.
RB- Baltimore Ravens- JK Dobbins
I know there is some Dobbins truthers out there. I used to be one. I believe Dobbins has yet to fully recover from his previous injuries. The guy has torn his ACL, LCL, meniscus, and hamstring. This is not a knock on his talent. It is more of I think he has lost that extra juice due to injury. Currently projected to finish at RB16. The Ravens invested a first-round pick in Wide Receiver Zay Flowers. They also got All Pro Wide Receiver Odell Beckham. The highlight is they did not invest much into Running Back this off-season. If Dobbins shows he has not lost that extra juice, then this prediction will be wrong. I personally just do not see that happening. Which has me saying he will finish below RB16 on the year.
WR- Jacksonville Jaguars- Calvin Ridley
Look I get it. Ridley is a WR1 caliber type of player. Let’s be real for a second. He has not played for almost 2 seasons. The Jaguars were rolling with Christian Kirk and Zay Jones last season. Trevor Etienne should be more involved in the passing game after the team drafted Tank Bigsby. They also resigned Tight End Evan Engram. Ridley is likely the most talent receiver out the bunch. The others have a season of building chemistry with Trevor Lawrence. Something Ridley will work on building all season. I do think Ridley finishes as the WR2 for the team. That will not make him WR15 which is currently projected. I think Kirk has another top 20 year. Ridley will take the backseat on his comeback year. Next season will be a different story.
Pittsburgh Steelers- Pat Freiermuth
Currently projected to finish as TE10 on the year. Which is fair considering he finished as TE8 last season. However, the team drafted talented Tight End Darnell Washington. Freiermuth saw an average of 68% snap share last season. I do expect that to go down with the addition of Washington. Washington brings great run blocking up the field abilities. The Steelers have a bulldozer at Running Back in Najee Harris meaning we could see Washington take the field a bit more than Freiermuth. Because of this I think he finishes closer to TE20 than projected TE10.
Flex- Minnesota Vikings- T.J. Hockenson
Like Freiermuth, Hockenson had the team add a possible threat to his production in the draft. The difference is that the Vikings added their new receiving option in the first round. Rookie Wide Receiver Jordan Addison will look to solidify the WR2 role behind stud receiver Justin Jefferson. The team did just invest into Hockenson giving him a four-year extension. However, with the addition of Addison I do not see him getting 129 targets again. Maybe, slightly over 100. The saving grace is the team lost star Running Back Dalvin Cook. New starting Running Back, Alexander Mattison, has shown he can be a pass catching back though. Hockenson was the second-best receiving option for the team last season. This season I can see him being the third, or even fourth best. Which to me means he will not finish as projected TE3.
DL- Philadelphia Eagles- Haason Reddick
I recently wrote an article explaining why Reddick is a sell high for me right now. He saw less than 75% snap share yet turned in a stellar season performance. He is currently projected to finish DL10. I just think there is much more added star power to the Eagles defense that will have fall below that. It is possible he is still very efficient. I think we see more breakout years from somebody like Jordan Davis. Maybe, the addition of Nakobe Dean and Jalen Carter push Reddick’s efficiency down. Reddick is a solid veteran. In 2023 the young guns in Philly will say it is our turn now.
LB- Denver Broncos- Josey Jewell
Jewell and Alex Singleton were a dynamic duo last year for the Broncos. Jewell will look to build off his career year of 127 tackles and 2.5 sacks in 2022. However, the team drafted former five-star recruit Drew Sanders. Sanders is an explosive linebacker that can be utilized in different packages. Jewell will start ahead of him. I do believe the addition of Sanders disrupts the tackles Jewell will receive. Thus, pushing him back from a projected LB11 in 2023. I will note that Jewell played in only 13 games last season. Maybe if he plays a full 17 in 2023, he finishes top 15. Even then I think Sanders is too good that the Broncos will work on getting him on the field early and often.
DB- Atlanta Falcons- Richie Grant
Grant also had a career year last season. In his second year he brought in 122 tackles with 2 interceptions. The Falcons brought in Defensive Backs Jeff Okudah and Jessie Bates to join the secondary. Bates is the kicker here. In his first three seasons Bates averaged over 100 tackles per season. His last two he averaged 80. Grant is the younger of the two. Bates is dynamic. He has shown the ability to help at the line or step back in coverage. With Bates being the veteran with a tad bit more experience I think it causes Grant a step back from projected DB6 finish. I do believe the Falcons secondary will be one of the best in the league. Even then I do not see Grant finishing at his position in the top 10.
IDP- Miami Dolphins- Christian Wilkins
Another defender that brought home a career year last season. Wilkins is a solid veteran. I just think third year guy Jaelan Phillips takes a step forward to be the force coming off the right side this season. I think we see more from Phillips, as in, more than 60 tackles and possibly double-digit sacks. The Dolphins front seven is stacked with talented defenders that can all get to the ball. Wilkins will still play a heavy part in this defense. I just think we see a digression in his performance slightly causing him to not be a top 3 defensive lineman as projected.
Those are my projected busts based on projected finishes. Who are your busts for the 2023 season? Let me know in the comments.
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