Players I’m Buying
BUY – Tyrel Dodson, LB, Seattle Seahawks
Dodson saw a jump in playing time after Matt Milano went down with a season-ending leg injury in Week 5. He played well in both coverage and defending the run. That earned the former UDFA a one-year contract with the Seahawks and an opportunity to start in Mike Macdonald’s defense. As of now, his only competition is Jerome Baker and Jon Rhattigan. While it’s possible that Seattle drafts a linebacker in the first two days of the NFL Draft, I’m confident that Dodson is good enough to carve out a role that will yield at least LB2 or 3 numbers in IDP. He’s not a huge name and the lack of a significant contract means that you should be able to buy him for a late pick.
BUY – YaYa Diaby, Edge, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
While everyone was focusing on Tampa Bay bringing back Mike Evans and Baker Mayfield, I was more interested in how their defense would re-tool itself, in particular, the edge rotation. Shaq Barrett ended a five-year spell with the team to sign with the Dolphins. They inked veteran journeyman Randy Gregory to a one-year deal a couple days ago. That leaves Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, YaYa Diaby, and Gregory as the main pass-rushers.
Diaby already displaced Tryon as a starter in 2023 and saw a weekly snap share of about 60% towards the end of the season. He also led the Bucs with 7.5 sacks. That’s great work from a rookie, but I think that’s only scratching the surface. Diaby only posted a 6.7% pass rush win rate. For comparison, most elite edges surpass the 20% mark. He’s raw in his technique, but Todd Bowles seems to really like him and he’ll have plenty of opportunities in 2024. That’s worth taking a chance and rostering him before he truly breaks out.
BUY – Trenton Simpson, LB, Baltimore Ravens
You should go trade for the guy who is likely to take over the role next to future Hall of Famer Roquan Smith. It’s that simple. Simpson didn’t see any significant time until a Week 18 start against the Steelers, but when he did hit the field, he impressed by making seven tackles (six solo) and a sack. Not bad!
This is a classic Ravens personnel move. They draft a player a year in advance to properly prepare them for a position that is soon to be vacant. Baltimore’s depth chart at inside linebacker is also pretty barren, which doesn’t guarantee Simpson the job, but makes me more confident that they believe in him. Otherwise, they would’ve added some veteran depth. It isn’t going to be cheap to acquire him. However, this is one of those cases that warrants paying a premium (a 2nd round pick in 16 team leagues).
BUY – Taylor Rapp, S, Buffalo Bills
The Bills let Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer depart in a shake-up of their safety room. Mike Edwards and Taylor Rapp look to be the likely replacements. In Rapp’s case, he signed a three-year contract that is a reward for his solid play while filling in at times during 2023. Even if the Bills wanted to further upgrade the position, they currently have about $4 million in cap space. This year’s safety draft class isn’t full of Day 1 and 2 prospects. In all likelihood, Rapp is the starting strong safety for the Bills in 2024. In shallower leagues, he may even be a free agent. If not, I’d trade a late round pick to bolster my fantasy secondary.
Players I’m Selling
SELL – DaRon Bland, CB, Dallas Cowboys
This is an obvious one for most experienced IDP veterans. Bland made history in 2023 by setting the record for most interception touchdowns in a season with five returns. His nine interceptions also led the NFL and he now has 14 in the past two campaigns. That is impressive production from a position that is difficult to forecast. He’s also primarily an outside cornerback and he’ll play under a new scheme in 2024 as Mike Zimmer takes over for Dan Quinn. For all of those reasons, I’d be looking to sell Bland for draft capital before he either suffers an injury or those turnover numbers negatively regress. Maybe somebody takes the bait and trades for him with the belief they’ve found a set-and-forget solution to their cornerback problem.
SELL – Khalil Mack, Edge, Los Angeles Chargers
Mack experienced a renaissance in 2023 and posted his best statistical season in years. He racked up 17 sacks and 5 forced fumbles along with 88 quarterback pressures. He played well in all phases and if I had any shares of him in my leagues, I’d look to sell now. The bottom line is that Mack is on the downside of his career in terms of age (33) and while his sack total was a season-high, it was the first time he’d reached double digits since 2018. Part of the anomaly can be explained by his monster performance against an imploding Raiders squad that produced six sacks.
The Chargers are looking to get younger as Jim Harbaugh and Joe Hortiz restructure the team. They traded longtime stalwart Keenan Allen to the Bears and let Austin Ekeler walk in free agency. It’s only a matter of time before they jettison Mack. For deeper leagues, I’d want a 2nd round pick in return. In shallower leagues, you could look to include him in a package deal to upgrade a skill position player.
SELL – Drew Sanders, LB, Denver Broncos
For most of us in IDP leagues, Jack Campbell was the first linebacker selected in last year’s rookie drafts. The next was either Drew Sanders or Daiyan Henley. If you took Sanders, your logic probably revolved around Josey Jewell hitting free agency and an inside linebacker spot opening up next to Alex Singleton. Jewell did indeed leave and signed with the Panthers. However, GM George Paton made some offseason comments that lead me to believe Sanders will transition to the edge. That wouldn’t necessarily be a death knell to his IDP value, but they already have talented young players like Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper. This is becoming a messy situation that I’d avoid if possible. You can sell the fact that his only competition for inside snaps is Cody Barton and hope somebody is not paying attention to his position move.
SELL – Will McDonald IV, Edge, New York Jets
I can’t blame the Jets for doing everything to win now. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers spent all of last season rehabbing his Achilles after he tore it four plays into his New York debut. It’s all or nothing at this point and they have one, maybe two seasons to win that elusive Lombardi Trophy. So trading for a veteran pass-rusher like Haason Reddick makes complete sense. Unfortunately, that muddies up the rotation in terms of where McDonald, a 2023 first-round selection, will play. Jermaine Johnson looks like the real deal. Barring injuries, that only leaves a depth role for the foreseeable future. I’m not going to dump him for peanuts, but I wouldn’t be afraid to include the former Cyclone in a deal as a sweetener.
Thank you for reading. Follow me on X at @BigSteveFF for more!
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