Tackleboxprops Week 1 Prop Bets
We are finally back for another season of prop bets. Last year was extremely profitable for those that followed along, and the hope is that we can replicate that success in the 2023-2023 season. Listed below, you will find some of my favorite plays for week 1.
1.42u Jahlani Tavai UNDER 6.5 tackles + assists (-142 Caesars)
Not much has changed with the Patriots defense from last year other than adding a few rookies into the mix and Devin McCourty retiring. The lack of change leads me to believe that Tavai will have a similar role to what he had last year. A role in which he only saw around 51% of the team’s defensive snaps on the year. A role that only allowed him to go over this total in 3 games while staying under in 14 them. He squares off against the Eagles this week, a team that allowed the 23rd most tackles/game to LBs last season along with the 5th worst tackle rate allowed to the position.
1.35u Kyle Dugger OVER 4.5 tackles+assists (-135 Barstool)
Dugger went over this total in 10 out of 15 games played last year but really picked up the pace towards the end of last season, going over this number in 7 out of his last 8 games. The Eagles were an elite matchup for opposing safeties last year as they allowed the 2nd most tackles/game and 2nd highest tackle rate to the position. My model has him going over this total just under 65% of the time but that is assuming a 75% snap share. You never know what you are going to get from a Belichick coached team, but I have a hunch that Dugger is on the field for a more snaps than what my model is projecting.
1.4u Jack Sanborn UNDER 6.5 tackles+assists (-140 Bet365)
I don’t understand why this line moved from 5.5 to 6.5 but now I’m going to bite on the under. He is the clear LB3 in Chicago behind the new free agent signings of Edmunds and Edwards. Last year, the Bears had 3 LBs on the field for roughly 34% of their snaps. Even if I manually plug in a 50% snap share into my projections, it has this bet winning just over 74% of the time. Last year, the Packers only gave up the 15.7 total tackles per game to LBs, the 7th least in the league.
1.4u Kyzir White OVER 5.5 tackles+assists (-140 Bet365)
Kyzir White finds his new home in Arizona where he should see over 90% of the snaps. Last season, he went over this total in 11 out of 17 games played while only playing around 75% of the defensive snaps for the Eagles. The Commanders allowed the highest tackle rate in the NFL last season to opposing LB’s and also allowed the 2nd most tackles/game to the position. The likely uptick in snaps as the LB1 for the Cardinals this year, along with and elite matchup for linebacker tackles makes this an easy play for me.
2u Monty Rice UNDER 7.5 tackles + assists (+100 DraftKings)
By all reports throughout preseason, Jack Gibbens has secured the LB2 spot behind Azeez Al-Shaair in Tennessee. Last season, the Titans ran a nickel base defense (2 offball LBs) 61.4% of the time and dime 24.4% (1 offball LB). Assuming reports of Rice being 3rd on the depth chart are true, that doesn’t leave him much playing time. The Saints were 9th in tackles per game allowed to LBs last season at 17.4/game. Even if Rice plays more than anticipated, this still is a lofty number for him to reach.
Thanks for reading, good luck and follow me on X at @tackleboxprops.